Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49e66dd6b39c8168c0bc98019f9fa58b8a652bc4802fa13e34d54387cf490935

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $363,781
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $258,292

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $363,781 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	51,238$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.29	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	13c	26,231$3,303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,302.53	186	16.1%30 W · 156 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	1c	12,155$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.65	177	17.5%31 W · 146 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	10c	8,074$770 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$769.53	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	18c	8,071$1,443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,443.39	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	12c	6,159$716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$715.55	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	2c	5,963$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.95	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	16c	4,237$684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$684.48	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	3c	3,755$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.78	197	31%61 W · 136 L	+13.8wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+22%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	4c	3,333$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.77	136	16.2%22 W · 114 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	4c	3,175$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.24	154	7.8%12 W · 142 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes	21c	3,074$633 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$633.15	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	6c	3,057$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.93	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	9c	2,955$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.23	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	10c	2,911$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.31	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	2c	2,664$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.2	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	1c	2,606$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.06	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	77c	2,333$1,789 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$543.05	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	25c	2,184$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.98	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	11c	2,107$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.66	405	19.8%80 W · 325 L	-18.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb29c…d8b9backed Yes	1c	2,099$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.18	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes	27c	2,065$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.54	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	16c	2,059$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.84	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	5c	2,000$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.79	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	2,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	3c	2,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	149	12.8%19 W · 130 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	30c	1,937$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.27	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	20c	1,919$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$387	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x461e…dd77backed Yes	13c	1,917$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-74%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	7c	1,907$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.07	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	2c	1,820$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.16	136	11.8%16 W · 120 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes	8c	1,811$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.53	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	12c	1,793$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.91	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	7c	1,759$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.56	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	11c	1,701$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.48	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	13c	1,672$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.68	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	27c	1,600$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.31	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e88…b898backed Yes	10c	1,581$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.74	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	14c	1,568$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.78	270	24.4%66 W · 204 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	11c	1,529$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.15	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	9c	1,529$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.27	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	14c	1,514$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.94	312	24.7%77 W · 235 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	67c	1,474$991 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$482.92	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	10c	1,400$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.56	324	15.7%51 W · 273 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	14c	1,375$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.08	630	21.7%137 W · 493 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	2c	1,360$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.91	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked Yes	5c	1,359$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.61	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	19c	1,313$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.81	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	17c	1,277$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.4	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	17c	1,151$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb85e…7354backed Yes	1c	1,120$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.92	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes	27c	1,120$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.58	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	4c	1,023$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.67	216	6%13 W · 203 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	12c	1,008$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.85	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb4d1…02d5backed Yes	33c	1,001$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+454.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07cf…a9fabacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	327	16.8%55 W · 272 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes	17c	999.65$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.94	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	12c	995.1$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.54	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes	6c	902.57$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.55	132	24.2%32 W · 100 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	8c	861.66$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	6c	860.05$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.71	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes	21c	853.59$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.25	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes	3c	850$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	100	8%8 W · 92 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	10c	843.25$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.16	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5734…06babacked Yes	36c	839.97$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$299.8	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+64%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x58a5…ec93backed No	80c	835.9$668 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.95	30	83.3%25 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	80cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…4cc5backed Yes	1c	821.77$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes	25c	809.78$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	31c	796.37$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes	21c	715.82$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+145.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	13c	713.93$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	12c	710.64$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.79	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x08d9…80a4backed Yes	13c	612.5$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+67.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	10c	610$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.4	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes	6c	599.99$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	17c	592.39$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.65	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes	13c	583.74$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes	26c	575.81$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.18	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed92…5c02backed Yes	7c	557.14$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	11c	553.2$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.64	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	12c	540.81$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.05	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	10c	513$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.86	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	12c	500$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.6	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	16c	499.94$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.76	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7863…ffddbacked Yes	20c	498.93$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9941…e21ebacked Yes	14c	477.13$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.8	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44b7…2e99backed Yes	8c	442.23$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e7…06c1backed Yes	13c	441.26$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-88.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes	10c	437.42$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.62	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes	20c	408.6$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.72	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	17c	401.99$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.56	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcc0f…8039backed Yes	20c	400$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes	20c	399.39$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.37	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	11c	376.52$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.7	188	14.4%27 W · 161 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	11c	374.17$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1680…490dbacked Yes	12c	362.26$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	8c	362.15$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.05	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	18c	350$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	145	13.8%20 W · 125 L	-8.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f71…719abacked Yes	35c	346.75$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event