Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4a89a1fb27fa8ce0353dfb2367d3981b183d0c2ae6575aa77a23f28858824ec

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $350,641
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $158,820

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $350,641 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	25,011$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.02	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	24,842$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.84	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	17,202$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$257.89	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	11,384$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.88	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	3c	11,131$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.48	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	10,084$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.52	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e8…8354backed Yes	0c	9,815$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.59	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+319.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	9,108$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.46	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	8,940$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.98	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe211…9fb8backed Yes	2c	8,317$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.44	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Yes	0c	8,064$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	0%0 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	1c	4,931$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.68	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	2c	4,651$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.23	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	4,339$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.81	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	4,113$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.08	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	0c	3,573$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	1c	3,445$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.16	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	1c	3,120$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.04	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	2,500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.27	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	2,381$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.14	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	3c	2,343$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.94	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	1c	2,250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	4c	2,206$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	2,157$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes	1c	2,128$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	1c	2,100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.98	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes	2c	2,044$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,878$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.68	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	1c	1,783$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.18	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	4c	1,722$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.48	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7cd4…30aebacked Yes	3c	1,700$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.34	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	1c	1,521$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	1c	1,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.78	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes	2c	968.41$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.16	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7de…537abacked Yes	3c	930.6$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.13	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	+93.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes	1c	860$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.84	26	0%0 W · 26 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	2c	712.85$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	2c	709.97$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.92	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9307…8910backed Yes	2c	663.04$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5f…55a8backed Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+125.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb816…9e90backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	60	33.3%20 W · 40 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+74.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event