Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc9b67d43890ea35ae020a65e78f00d581af96586003080a587438222715718c

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $462,405
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $289,683

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $462,405 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	17c	32,109$5,433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,432.91	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	16,659$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.39	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	4c	15,642$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.93	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	29c	12,942$3,761 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,761.02	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	15c	11,798$1,796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,796.08	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	0c	11,000$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	0c	10,679$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	28c	7,599$2,117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,117.04	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes	11c	7,153$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed No	52c	6,297$3,297 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,000.31	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc856…5f25backed Yes	1c	6,031$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	16c	6,029$985 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$984.83	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	5,958$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.13	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	32c	5,805$1,830 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,829.99	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No	80c	5,094$4,075 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,018.92	72	56.9%41 W · 31 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes	5c	5,061$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.34	50	24%12 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	4,817$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.24	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	4,479$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.21	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	22c	4,009$889 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$888.91	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	13c	3,700$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.08	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes	28c	3,586$1,017 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,016.98	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7cd4…30aebacked Yes	1c	3,551$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.51	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	3,311$376 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$376.18	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	1c	3,136$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.22	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	3,026$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.8	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	10c	2,940$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304.14	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	31c	2,883$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	1c	2,812$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.41	149	14.1%21 W · 128 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No	65c	2,668$1,744 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$923.67	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	28c	2,656$735 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$735.12	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	18c	2,539$452 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$452.09	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	7c	2,500$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.66	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	1c	2,476$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.6	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	14c	2,456$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350.72	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes	2c	2,423$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	5c	2,402$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.19	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	13c	2,150$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$289.58	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	11c	2,053$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.63	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	23c	1,954$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.39	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	2c	1,941$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.74	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	7c	1,865$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.58	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	75c	1,816$1,362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$453.72	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	4c	1,773$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.09	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5734…06babacked Yes	34c	1,750$591 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$591.34	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+64%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	28c	1,672$464 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$464.32	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	11c	1,650$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.06	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	28c	1,620$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.64	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe559…1300backed Yes	2c	1,618$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.12	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes	1c	1,529$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.85	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes	5c	1,500$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.5	167	16.2%27 W · 140 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa980…583ebacked Yes	2c	1,499$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.11	43	37.2%16 W · 27 L	+4.9wins	+0.11per pick	26cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes	1c	1,498$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	32	34.4%11 W · 21 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+137.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	21c	1,487$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.53	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	1,472$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.09	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No	72c	1,429$1,027 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401.92	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No	79c	1,271$1,009 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$261.92	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	6c	1,248$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.51	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	2c	1,212$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.09	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes	26c	1,192$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.96	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes	36c	1,150$416 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.82	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	11c	1,110$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	9c	1,107$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	18c	1,102$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.31	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d74…a191backed Yes	1c	1,100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	50	38%19 W · 31 L	+5.4wins	+0.11per pick	27cpaid	+47.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3fcc…5c9bbacked Yes	1c	1,098$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1855…f2a7backed Yes	18c	1,087$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.29	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	8c	1,062$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe608…f6e8backed Yes	31c	1,055$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.82	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes	26c	1,051$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.2	97	33%32 W · 65 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	8c	1,041$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.13	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Yes	1c	1,032$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.97	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	29c	1,030$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdff1…f287backed Yes	49c	1,008$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$494.26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	24c	1,005$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.98	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes	7c	999.97$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x625b…3a3ebacked Yes	39c	922$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.51	13	76.9%10 W · 3 L	+3.7wins	+0.28per pick	49cpaid	+101.9%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	6c	900$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.2	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No	78c	882.69$688 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$194.21	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	882.16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	10c	821.08$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.62	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No	71c	813.05$577 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.64	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	778.53$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.46	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	23c	771.71$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	17c	763.62$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.05	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97cd…227dbacked Yes	34c	763.51$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.37	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+233%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes	35c	759.99$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.64	83	24.1%20 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9307…8910backed Yes	27c	757.96$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes	34c	749.29$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.37	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	37c	742.2$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.74	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	72c	721.72$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$201.52	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x713b…f43cbacked Yes	46c	702.37$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.31	105	36.2%38 W · 67 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	39cpaid	-10.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	17c	684$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.97	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	2c	649.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes	32c	647.07$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.06	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	4c	620.21$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.28	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	19c	612.78$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.88	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x461e…dd77backed Yes	12c	604.8$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-74%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaabb…daf3backed Yes	50c	599.91$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.34	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	+7.9wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+66.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa054…c14bbacked Yes	41c	577.21$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.65	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	+99.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event