Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd57b60c55cfdc213a03e4513c1d5073091d9d0ddf0a1738d8f8b039dfeb581e5

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $216,425
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $152,915

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,425 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 145 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	25,818$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.24	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	13c	13,394$1,765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,765.4	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	7c	10,730$738 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.79	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	17c	4,227$734 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$734.32	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	4,204$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.91	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed No	79c	3,983$3,145 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$837.73	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	7c	3,352$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.43	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	3c	3,292$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.26	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	3,200$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.2	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	8c	3,172$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.04	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	6c	2,923$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.04	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	2,746$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.51	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes	8c	2,666$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	4c	2,623$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.37	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ee…64b4backed Yes	31c	2,603$820 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819.92	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	32c	2,496$788 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$788	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,441$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.57	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	2,429$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.17	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes	25c	2,411$601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600.64	62	30.6%19 W · 43 L	+5.2wins	+0.08per pick	22cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	3c	2,223$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.66	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf1d…4102backed Yes	30c	2,019$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	3c	2,000$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.5	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xaae4…aa62backed No	78c	2,000$1,559 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440.84	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.6wins	+0.26per pick	41cpaid	+197.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,965$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.19	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	6c	1,903$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.11	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed Yes	16c	1,585$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	74c	1,521$1,125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$395.89	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	28c	1,200$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7863…ffddbacked Yes	15c	1,197$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	13c	1,189$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.35	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	9c	1,173$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.29	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	11c	1,146$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	11c	930$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.44	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbba0…3576backed Yes	1c	924.36$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No	79c	921.76$731 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.01	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	1c	900$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	2c	900$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes	21c	893.19$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	22c	806$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.23	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	8c	804.57$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.41	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x186c…1d32backed Yes	28c	770$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.44	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	7c	703.3$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.3	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	673.19$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.28	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes	30c	615.36$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.42	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	16c	609.18$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.86	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	18c	561.37$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.93	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	11c	527.14$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.37	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	19c	499.42$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.9	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ad8…8125backed Yes	12c	471.06$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.47	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8f7…1a86backed Yes	3c	468.89$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	14c	459.37$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No	74c	443.94$327 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.17	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes	23c	433.47$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	5c	429.28$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.7	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95a2…67ebbacked No	69c	419.35$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$128.41	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+36.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes	25c	401.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No	75c	387.11$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.08	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	20c	380.23$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.05	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes	4c	373.24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+102.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	9c	368.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.92	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x936f…f16dbacked Yes	25c	367.15$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.8wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	24c	365.07$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.15	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	17c	350$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	5c	302.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	29c	299.69$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.54	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b4e…f5e1backed No	78c	282.95$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.47	13	92.3%12 W · 1 L	+2.3wins	+0.18per pick	74cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	24c	277$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.83	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	6c	277$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	24c	274.5$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.72	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0f…8039backed Yes	29c	250$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.17	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes	7c	249.9$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.33	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2763…78a8backed Yes	11c	248.98$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.89	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	27c	247.7$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.87	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x580f…e755backed Yes	26c	242.06$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.94	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc191…0f9abacked Yes	28c	234.35$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44be…b431backed Yes	10c	226.94$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.34	29	37.9%11 W · 18 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes	13c	224$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.25	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x339d…06dabacked Yes	6c	216.29$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	88	21.6%19 W · 69 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	78c	213$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.65	208	57.2%119 W · 89 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5659…c604backed Yes	27c	211.01$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.94	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	14c	210.93$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.54	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe211…9fb8backed Yes	25c	201.28$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+81.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x555c…ee28backed Yes	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	74	10.8%8 W · 66 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	60	11.7%7 W · 53 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2213…492cbacked No	75c	200$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.4	35	57.1%20 W · 15 L	+2.8wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01da…07bebacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	143	20.3%29 W · 114 L	+6.9wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+82.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No	70c	199.81$140 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.48	148	64.9%96 W · 52 L	+9.6wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	17c	193.13$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.92	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf52b…5bf3backed Yes	17c	188.81$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.33	76	7.9%6 W · 70 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	27c	178.55$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	16c	173.35$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.11	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	31c	160.65$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4878…dfacbacked Yes	24c	150.22$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.25	141	48.2%68 W · 73 L	+7.6wins	+0.05per pick	43cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd5e…271bbacked No	75c	150$113 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.5	35	37.1%13 W · 22 L	-1.9wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ff9…1e60backed No	73c	136.07$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.07	103	63.1%65 W · 38 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	62cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No	69c	135$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.1	183	58.5%107 W · 76 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	58cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes	27c	131.79$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	470	32.6%153 W · 317 L	+13.5wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec95…9ac5backed Yes	31c	130.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes	16c	111.34$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	99	19.2%19 W · 80 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed92…5c02backed Yes	14c	108.95$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event