Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf193c555c1774af3caa399ceca902cba13854b319f12ac0c2ab59ede05d0cd30

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $283,001
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $210,768

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $283,001 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 216 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	38,735$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.08	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	15c	13,352$1,985 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,985.37	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	4c	11,651$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.44	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	2c	6,994$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.69	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	3c	6,068$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.56	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	29c	4,992$1,454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,453.91	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	0c	4,641$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.4	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	15c	4,150$608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$608.45	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	3c	4,078$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.93	199	30.7%61 W · 138 L	+13.6wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	3c	4,000$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.55	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	26c	3,971$1,027 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,027.07	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes	26c	3,869$1,004 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,004.2	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No	73c	3,754$2,741 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,012.48	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	4c	3,674$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.04	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	1c	3,377$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.2	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	3,184$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.41	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes	5c	2,665$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.02	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes	30c	2,606$771 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$770.58	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	71c	2,425$1,732 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$692.5	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	2,313$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.44	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No	78c	2,033$1,579 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$454.2	72	56.9%41 W · 31 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	18c	1,969$348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.09	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes	2c	1,908$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.89	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	1c	1,869$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.01	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes	19c	1,720$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.33	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	40c	1,630$658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$657.55	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e88…b898backed Yes	21c	1,566$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.81	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes	16c	1,547$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.42	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	39c	1,500$582 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$582.12	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	40c	1,500$597 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$596.95	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	1,466$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	16c	1,415$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.64	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	15c	1,307$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.1	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	29c	1,296$374 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373.91	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	15c	1,220$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.49	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	17c	1,150$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.82	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed92…5c02backed Yes	16c	1,150$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	19c	1,112$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.97	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe559…1300backed Yes	1c	1,087$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	21c	1,042$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.09	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4d1…02d5backed Yes	9c	1,035$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+454.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	34c	983.64$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.42	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes	2c	970$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	26c	938.5$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.28	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7863…ffddbacked Yes	27c	853.85$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.64	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	27c	836.38$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.28	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	15c	816.26$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.38	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	67c	799.67$533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$266.89	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x24d6…6e3cbacked Yes	24c	792.55$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.27	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-43.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	20c	783.97$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.22	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes	33c	767.16$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252.41	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	12c	756.31$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.44	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	28c	736.11$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.17	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa32d…df56backed Yes	22c	725.26$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.32	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	26c	706.73$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.75	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	25c	699.97$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.99	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0df4…c7cbbacked No	75c	665.9$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$166.12	55	67.3%37 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	64cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	661.07$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.92	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	20c	623.51$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.43	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked No	73c	599.51$440 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.44	113	59.3%67 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No	71c	595.81$424 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$171.66	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08d9…80a4backed Yes	26c	583.73$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+67.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b90…c1afbacked Yes	26c	579.73$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9941…e21ebacked Yes	26c	576.92$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes	12c	536.36$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	13c	518.11$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	24c	500$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	46	52.2%24 W · 22 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x097b…19c1backed Yes	27c	495.79$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.1	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-2.2wins	-0.20per pick	29cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No	73c	483.16$354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.44	43	58.1%25 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	19c	469.98$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	8c	466.08$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.69	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b4e…f5e1backed No	73c	446.97$328 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$118.48	13	92.3%12 W · 1 L	+2.3wins	+0.18per pick	74cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	12c	436.59$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.01	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	12c	410.25$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.22	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes	32c	400.81$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.73	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes	26c	378.15$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-3.2wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f71…719abacked Yes	27c	365.71$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	27c	358.99$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.25	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes	6c	356.08$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.36	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	80c	354.79$283 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.59	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes	12c	348.79$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.66	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x72be…67b8backed Yes	31c	332.09$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.81	97	24.7%24 W · 73 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7039…4a7dbacked Yes	15c	327.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	23	47.8%11 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	10c	326.59$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.71	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	13c	310.54$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.33	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No	70c	307.77$217 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90.88	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No	56c	302.25$169 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.99	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.6	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	26c	300$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc0f…8039backed Yes	22c	299.99$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No	71c	292.95$209 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.02	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No	78c	285$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.98	241	55.6%134 W · 107 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1dc…ce46backed Yes	25c	276.58$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc191…0f9abacked Yes	24c	265.67$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.33	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec95…9ac5backed Yes	19c	263.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	21c	260.82$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.77	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	24c	252.18$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.66	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event