Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbda26759c272073c2db8e481be13ddf4f441571b7be016c90227b3b70461639b

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $426,770
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $256,978

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $426,770 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	31,741$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.65	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	23,007$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.9	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes	4c	20,000$772 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	16,737$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.74	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	5c	14,371$684 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$684.24	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	5c	14,042$691 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$691.26	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	3c	12,275$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.29	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa50…3327backed Yes	8c	9,732$812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$811.57	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	7,702$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.23	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	7,020$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.86	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	0c	5,844$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	4c	5,835$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.39	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	2c	5,341$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.28	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	1c	5,148$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.78	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes	1c	4,988$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.4	50	24%12 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	2c	4,502$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.61	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	4c	4,481$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.04	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	4,456$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.09	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	4,108$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.89	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes	2c	3,899$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.97	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	3,894$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.19	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	1c	3,499$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.07	149	14.1%21 W · 128 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8c5…dd45backed Yes	3c	3,000$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	43	27.9%12 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	4c	2,500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	2,400$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.28	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	3c	2,400$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.79	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes	3c	2,259$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	2c	2,146$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.26	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes	1c	1,991$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	246	17.5%43 W · 203 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	1c	1,837$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.07	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	3c	1,798$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.02	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes	4c	1,776$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.86	97	33%32 W · 65 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4368…8554backed Yes	8c	1,678$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.39	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cd4…30aebacked Yes	4c	1,632$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.67	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	6c	1,621$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.29	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	12c	1,543$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.88	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	1c	1,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	2c	1,500$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.1	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	12c	1,497$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.79	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	14c	1,481$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.6	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	1,151$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.18	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	1,150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes	9c	1,087$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.33	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…1c78backed Yes	6c	1,051$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	4c	1,030$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.03	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8409…753dbacked Yes	3c	1,002$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.07	41	46.3%19 W · 22 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	167	16.2%27 W · 140 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d5f…55a8backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	10	50%5 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+125.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	877.89$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.79	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	7c	868.86$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.35	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	9c	855.2$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.7	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	7c	750$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	+8.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	725.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1855…f2a7backed Yes	5c	723.6$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.75	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2844…5aa1backed Yes	3c	672.36$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.09	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+234%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf670…3cb8backed Yes	5c	659.99$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.14	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	4c	610.8$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes	10c	514.46$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	101	25.7%26 W · 75 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	8c	512.17$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes	5c	502.83$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7de…537abacked Yes	8c	494.1$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.04	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	+93.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	4c	468.74$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.39	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdff1…f287backed Yes	9c	458.16$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.06	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9307…8910backed Yes	9c	455.28$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	415.7$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec34…d61ebacked Yes	5c	344.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.04	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-72.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ca9…a2e6backed Yes	8c	341.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.6	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	6c	338.57$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.82	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	5c	276.04$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.85	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	9c	245.87$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	11c	218.03$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f99…ee76backed Yes	10c	209.41$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	11cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe847…dad6backed Yes	8c	186.97$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.81	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	7c	175$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	13c	159.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.32	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event