Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8f38186529a3e7b9c44efb924f82d070dc407dc8a94a01faf6be6a58809e9a40

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $311,649
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $222,351

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $311,649 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 418 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xce40…da67backed Yes	15c	9,099$1,372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,372.27	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	38c	6,445$2,435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,434.88	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	31c	6,330$1,944 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,944.48	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes	25c	5,303$1,302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,302.5	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	40c	4,673$1,880 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,880.03	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	19c	4,429$855 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$855.44	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes	32c	4,098$1,301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,301	73	37%27 W · 46 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	12c	3,935$475 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$475.03	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No	78c	3,900$3,054 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$846.19	324	15.7%51 W · 273 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	29c	3,849$1,127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,126.55	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	17c	3,824$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$644.83	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaabb…daf3backed Yes	1c	3,632$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.51	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	+7.9wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+66.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	37c	3,268$1,209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,209.46	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	13c	3,199$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.11	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	21c	3,122$665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$665.26	630	21.7%137 W · 493 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	6c	3,080$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.6	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	24c	3,032$716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$715.54	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	18c	3,000$536 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.89	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	21c	2,921$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$616.31	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	66c	2,796$1,846 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$950.52	189	49.2%93 W · 96 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes	36c	2,741$979 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$979.05	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01b8…82c1backed Yes	6c	2,545$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.8	79	17.7%14 W · 65 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	2,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked No	70c	2,469$1,723 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$746.09	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2eef…eacabacked Yes	33c	2,411$793 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$793.16	214	29.9%64 W · 150 L	-9.0wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-28%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	67c	2,352$1,568 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$783.64	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	1c	2,300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	197	31%61 W · 136 L	+13.8wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+22%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	78c	2,290$1,783 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$506.14	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	18c	2,048$363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$362.78	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes	33c	2,043$671 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$671	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	27c	2,028$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546.06	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	40c	2,000$805 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$804.69	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	58c	1,905$1,106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$798.75	219	59.8%131 W · 88 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	35c	1,814$639 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$638.98	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No	62c	1,761$1,088 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$673	405	19.8%80 W · 325 L	-18.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed Yes	39c	1,720$679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$678.6	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	15c	1,629$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.83	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No	75c	1,615$1,205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$410.44	308	54.9%169 W · 139 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffdd…40debacked No	70c	1,598$1,122 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$476	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	74cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed No	79c	1,533$1,215 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$317.68	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	1c	1,518$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	29c	1,466$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.55	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes	26c	1,360$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.75	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	1,333$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x952b…c92fbacked Yes	45c	1,282$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.76	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.07per pick	54cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes	13c	1,200$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+4.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	29c	1,195$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.73	154	7.8%12 W · 142 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	64c	1,173$756 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$417.36	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No	60c	1,164$697 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$466.9	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	11c	1,146$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.7	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	37c	1,135$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$421.21	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	40c	1,109$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.12	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No	69c	1,108$764 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$344.22	101	51.5%52 W · 49 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4265…851fbacked Yes	27c	1,052$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.55	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a2c…83afbacked Yes	1c	1,050$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	28	17.9%5 W · 23 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	+10.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…a09dbacked Yes	4c	1,036$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	61	23%14 W · 47 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	9c	1,008$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.72	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	11c	999.97$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.3	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	20c	961.6$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.56	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	21c	934.62$197 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.69	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	17c	925.3$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.02	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	25c	919.88$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232.77	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	17c	916.1$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.5	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No	65c	892.73$576 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$316.44	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6d3…71cfbacked No	60c	827.19$498 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$329.11	86	34.9%30 W · 56 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d73…75a0backed Yes	50c	820$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$410	65	29.2%19 W · 46 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf86c…559fbacked Yes	43c	812$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.28	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	36cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	9c	803.06$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.34	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	52c	799.99$417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$383	186	76.9%143 W · 43 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	14c	728.29$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.07	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes	27c	704.67$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.6	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd021…d89dbacked Yes	8c	694.05$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	11	36.4%4 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.14per pick	22cpaid	+120.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	25c	693.19$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.06	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0262…d7b6backed Yes	15c	666$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.9	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	9cpaid	-69.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	14c	659.47$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.33	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	25c	657.46$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.44	312	24.7%77 W · 235 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd004…d54abacked Yes	30c	650$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.58	84	36.9%31 W · 53 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	34cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	16c	649.99$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.5	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf142…2f8abacked No	64c	649.55$414 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.14	70	42.9%30 W · 40 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes	49c	612.47$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	167	41.3%69 W · 98 L	-5.6wins	-0.03per pick	45cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	16c	602.16$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.6	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	15c	598.49$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.83	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x299b…8994backed Yes	37c	592.95$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	66	28.8%19 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes	40c	586.6$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.97	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc191…0f9abacked Yes	8c	579.59$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	37	24.3%9 W · 28 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288d…00eabacked Yes	35c	565.98$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.34	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	15c	529.98$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.4	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	34c	528.33$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.95	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	18c	521.37$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.95	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	15c	516.1$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dc…e03abacked Yes	21c	509.45$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.98	202	22.8%46 W · 156 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1851…7016backed Yes	39c	509.2$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	16	56.3%9 W · 7 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ce…f073backed No	80c	500$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$100	17	82.4%14 W · 3 L	+1.8wins	+0.10per pick	72cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa61e…6906backed Yes	11c	500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	43	18.6%8 W · 35 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-42.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes	14c	499.99$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.42	207	23.7%49 W · 158 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b1a…639dbacked Yes	20c	497.26$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	40	25%10 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd13d…a958backed Yes	48c	491.74$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.5	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xefc9…1f0abacked Yes	41c	490.8$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.32	16	25%4 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event