Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfc7e7a8036f59f466d491975e129b4a7d9e546f71af5b71e59f5693aacceccb7

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $90,639
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $40,658

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,639 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	4c	6,219$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.33	630	21.7%137 W · 493 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,555$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.22	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	4,873$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.29	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	3,161$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.47	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	2,274$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.32	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	1c	2,139$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	1,992$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.09	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	5c	1,933$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.32	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	5c	1,370$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.48	270	24.4%66 W · 204 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	10c	1,351$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.61	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	2c	1,178$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	10c	1,167$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.79	312	24.7%77 W · 235 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	5c	1,039$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.62	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	4c	850.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.31	117	4.3%5 W · 112 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	6c	822.32$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.28	155	19.4%30 W · 125 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	706.01$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.49	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	5c	634.65$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	518	45.9%238 W · 280 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-15%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	4c	561.27$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.43	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3811…106fbacked Yes	4c	555.56$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+2.1wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+91.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e12…589ebacked Yes	5c	555.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	5c	517.79$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.79	405	19.8%80 W · 325 L	-18.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	2c	512.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	12c	500$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes	6c	470.97$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.28	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+102.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c39…5adebacked Yes	14c	343.61$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	6c	342.01$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.5	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes	14c	323.47$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.7	159	24.5%39 W · 120 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	13c	312.42$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.61	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	6c	310$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.53	578	11.4%66 W · 512 L	+19.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66f5…5e71backed Yes	8c	269.99$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2a03…3db7backed Yes	8c	250$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.93	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	-13%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	6c	243.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.26	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes	10c	199.85$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	11c	157.04$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.84	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x26b3…98f4backed Yes	11c	111.56$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5b4d…2adbbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31f2…6cbbbacked Yes	11c	97.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+90.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event