Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x390f81e8dd55c87f17972e215ad721844c19e2c7755a780939cd9383ae2de849

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $180,282
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $85,084

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $180,282 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	15,192$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.29	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	5c	7,511$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.98	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	4c	5,130$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.29	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,229$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.97	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	0c	4,100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.25	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	3,893$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.37	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	3,568$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.41	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	2c	3,413$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.79	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	7c	3,232$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.62	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x621e…b532backed Yes	10c	3,123$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.08	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	5c	2,666$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.6	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	1c	2,655$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.78	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	2c	2,632$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	2c	2,578$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.32	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	2,500$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.98	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	2c	2,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd9…ff26backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.8wins	+0.12per pick	2cpaid	+25%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	7c	1,699$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.03	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes	5c	1,618$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.11	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	1,536$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.08	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	5c	1,506$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.46	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	7c	1,490$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.58	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	1c	1,318$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.87	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,308$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.06	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	1c	1,255$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.23	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes	8c	1,177$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	3c	1,080$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.4	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	3c	1,009$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x504e…1a2fbacked Yes	1c	996.15$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	959.14$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.64	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	7c	917.67$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.44	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	8c	790.05$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.18	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41be…5f38backed Yes	6c	789.66$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.86	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	2c	730$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.08	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	5c	661.19$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.67	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	629.96$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.94	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes	6c	619.37$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.26	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+102.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	8c	600$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	586.19$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.72	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91b3…77d6backed Yes	7c	577.94$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.6	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.5wins	+0.19per pick	6cpaid	+338.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	512.4$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.47	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	96	14.6%14 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa661…4c55backed Yes	8c	499.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	-2.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-45.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	490.23$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.37	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	8c	485.71$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.06	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes	5c	464.79$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.99	133	23.3%31 W · 102 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	3c	414.77$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.96	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	3c	406.08$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.64	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x288d…00eabacked Yes	9c	401.25$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.92	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…4cc5backed Yes	7c	400.05$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	4c	351.07$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	9c	275$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.2	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf37b…4edabacked Yes	5c	256.76$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.15	63	6.3%4 W · 59 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	9c	219.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c09…eea9backed Yes	8c	210$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.75	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5d…15c0backed Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd5a…2ff7backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	147	21.8%32 W · 115 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x941b…97afbacked Yes	8c	200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa04a…7aecbacked Yes	6c	195.62$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+1.7wins	+0.14per pick	19cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57e8…8211backed Yes	9c	176.59$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.22per pick	38cpaid	+152%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	6c	173.65$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.63	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb627…d968backed Yes	9c	163.2$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	199	33.2%66 W · 133 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	7c	149.31$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event