Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x284db580039cb41dccd04d57c327752cbff3aeda1e76cd86341590675680e693

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $148,456
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $45,953

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,456 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	14,133$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.63	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes	1c	8,899$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.17	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+102.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	6,174$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.66	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	5,206$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.86	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	3,656$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.21	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	0c	3,650$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	3,351$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.28	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	3,290$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.41	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	3,263$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.41	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	3,079$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.23	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	3,000$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.2	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	2c	2,576$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.53	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	3c	2,379$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.23	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	1c	2,131$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.83	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	1,905$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.35	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	1c	1,584$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	1c	1,415$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	3c	1,210$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.2	155	7.7%12 W · 143 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	2c	1,080$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes	4c	1,046$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.32	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x30cf…704abacked Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	93	48.4%45 W · 48 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d37…2f72backed Yes	3c	979.7$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	3c	907.4$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.88	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d77…04c9backed Yes	1c	900$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	138	11.6%16 W · 122 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	833.14$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.13	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	2c	800.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	769.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.47	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf456…91dabacked Yes	2c	721.67$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	24cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	3c	719.84$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.38	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72aa…4cc5backed Yes	3c	586.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5d…15c0backed Yes	3c	500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	5c	393.84$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	5c	332.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c09…eea9backed Yes	4c	268.35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.93	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event