Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c2b1d36ad6d9d67559924884a361ee6eb56964b97d910699a4427d95f0018ed

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 11, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $126,566
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $61,780

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,566 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	10c	6,217$613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612.55	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,555$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.78	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,482$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.53	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	10c	4,280$428 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.98	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	4c	3,223$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.23	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	20c	2,171$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.74	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ee…6b9bbacked Yes	10c	2,107$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.79	54	16.7%9 W · 45 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	2,047$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.25	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	2,012$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.52	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	5c	1,880$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.11	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	6c	1,823$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.46	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	1c	1,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	17c	1,124$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.79	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	4c	1,104$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.7	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	2c	1,080$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	1c	1,078$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.87	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d88…1d65backed Yes	15c	1,036$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.08	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	50	30%15 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+19.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	6c	901.4$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.46	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	2c	800$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba75…837fbacked Yes	4c	760$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	750$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	7c	726.87$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.85	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	7c	600$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.42	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	2c	571.47$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	3c	549.15$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.52	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	544.7$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	473$378 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.6	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	10c	463.48$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.57	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	6c	459.27$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.56	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	7c	417.07$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.28	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	8c	380$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	8c	379.26$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e1…3fc9backed Yes	3c	359.1$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	61	14.8%9 W · 52 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58a5…ec93backed No	80c	329.8$264 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.96	32	84.4%27 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	80cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes	16c	306.43$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.03	161	24.2%39 W · 122 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	20c	300$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x580f…e755backed Yes	12c	294.35$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.32	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x496a…d78dbacked Yes	9c	274.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6efa…1a9bbacked Yes	19c	263.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	+122.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	17c	260.87$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.53	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d6…b907backed Yes	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	13	53.8%7 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	10c	220$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e12…589ebacked Yes	13c	214.37$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.69	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.6wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bf8…fb84backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	7c	199.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0959…fa99backed Yes	12c	150$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	15c	140$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b55…318fbacked Yes	12c	131.69$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	111	14.4%16 W · 95 L	-3.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	12c	100.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60ec…8d4cbacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b4d…2adbbacked Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a46…de6dbacked Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+2.0wins	+0.13per pick	20cpaid	+55.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf763…8d83backed Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-33.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	16c	100$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	19c	100$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd2…d71dbacked Yes	21c	90$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26b3…98f4backed Yes	16c	79.86$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.46	41	26.8%11 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-21.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	15c	70$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.3	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x31f2…6cbbbacked Yes	18c	60.32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+90.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x491e…3489backed Yes	19c	56.63$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.76	75	25.3%19 W · 56 L	+4.0wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event