Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16b4f4bc5370ed89b1c348caef0c88c781920ff652bd104c225e7fde782223ec

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 14, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $244,161
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $159,775

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $244,161 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 193 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes	0c	7,837$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	246	17.5%43 W · 203 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	7,382$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.94	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	16c	5,576$893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$892.77	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	22c	4,660$1,011 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,011.42	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	6c	4,261$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.48	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	0c	3,800$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.5	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	1c	3,500$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	199	9%18 W · 181 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+174.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes	18c	3,370$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-2.9wins	-0.08per pick	25cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	8c	2,500$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	6c	2,409$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.92	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	0c	2,400$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	5c	2,377$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.96	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	25c	2,307$566 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$565.72	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	8c	2,238$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.5	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	2,074$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	1c	2,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	7c	1,987$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.43	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	9c	1,935$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.9	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	1,911$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.4	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	1,453$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.08	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	1,420$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.17	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5cb0…5324backed Yes	2c	1,231$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	4c	1,214$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	21c	1,200$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.26	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcba3…6055backed No	76c	1,101$836 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.32	99	35.4%35 W · 64 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	3c	1,098$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.45	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	6c	1,084$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.71	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	10c	1,080$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb86…dc7bbacked Yes	22c	1,051$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.72	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+111.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	18c	1,012$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.38	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	9c	1,000$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.68	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	2c	999.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	7c	999.93$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.21	154	7.8%12 W · 142 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	9c	979.18$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.26	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	7c	978.35$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.97	405	19.8%80 W · 325 L	-18.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	6c	962.32$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.83	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xac8e…e2cfbacked Yes	9c	866.6$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.93	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.4wins	+0.19per pick	31cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	2c	833.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes	23c	820.33$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.01	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	73c	819.86$602 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.21	186	76.9%143 W · 43 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	7c	799.99$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x41be…5f38backed Yes	26c	757.31$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.32	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes	3c	747.6$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.29	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	8c	743.64$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.8	188	14.4%27 W · 161 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x299b…8994backed Yes	20c	735.6$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	66	28.8%19 W · 47 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	17c	697.01$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.52	312	24.7%77 W · 235 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	2c	663.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes	2c	652.34$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.14	113	20.4%23 W · 90 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-19.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	23c	649.99$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.2	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	30c	624.58$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.37	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	2c	612.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.66	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.77	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed Yes	25c	580$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.49	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	8c	556.01$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.33	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	71c	530$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$151.25	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x72aa…4cc5backed Yes	4c	513.74$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-80.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	77c	501.67$384 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$117.44	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	22c	493.22$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.95	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	11c	478.33$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.42	351	12.8%45 W · 306 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacc1…bd30backed Yes	3c	453.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes	28c	453.56$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes	23c	438.26$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	48	29.2%14 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x032a…cf07backed Yes	2c	434.27$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.36	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75e1…681abacked Yes	26c	425.16$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.64	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	31cpaid	-76.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	8c	408.56$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.95	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	7c	400$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	8c	380$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	373.74$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.47	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	8c	370.14$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	155	19.4%30 W · 125 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	6c	340$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	252	11.5%29 W · 223 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	30c	334.88$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	9c	334.28$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.1	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	11c	312.19$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.12	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	9c	311.24$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.14	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x288d…00eabacked Yes	28c	303.25$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	34cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x219f…dbd9backed Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe953…a4f9backed Yes	23c	299.99$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	93	30.1%28 W · 65 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No	78c	285.17$222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.38	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbaee…8911backed Yes	19c	269.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	17.2%5 W · 24 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes	12c	267.38$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.34	74	32.4%24 W · 50 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	7c	249.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.7	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes	7c	248$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.36	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+4.3wins	+0.09per pick	48cpaid	+40.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	32c	243.5$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.03	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes	28c	240.77$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.35	207	23.7%49 W · 158 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	29c	239.73$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ecb…4c3abacked Yes	9c	235.21$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.55	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	+1.4wins	+0.08per pick	26cpaid	+18.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	14c	233.08$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.35	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c09…eea9backed Yes	16c	220$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.52	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	15c	210.3$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b2f…5418backed Yes	5c	209.27$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd26a…732cbacked Yes	20c	201.95$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	124	35.5%44 W · 80 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x98f7…e2a4backed Yes	22c	200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.2	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3107…fe91backed Yes	22c	200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.4	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a16…6f38backed Yes	22c	200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.4	20	35%7 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcefe…895dbacked Yes	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.3	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+31%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c66…01d9backed Yes	24c	200$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.9	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6977…936fbacked Yes	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.1	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…d0e7backed Yes	22c	200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	27	37%10 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event