Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75065a75ad2e3888bb9129ae25fee552af7ad5da1cd40cac2113ad812c25ef6b

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 10, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $87,952
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,804

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,952 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,555$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.44	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	1c	3,536$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.26	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	3,512$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.89	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	3,256$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.82	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes	5c	3,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.5	50	24%12 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	2,631$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.35	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	1,877$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.83	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	1,640$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.93	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	2c	1,557$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.64	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5533…51babacked Yes	1c	1,313$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.77	50	2%1 W · 49 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+62.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	1,262$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.47	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	6c	1,225$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.66	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a03…3db7backed Yes	3c	1,200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.28	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	-13%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	2c	1,052$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.08	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	1c	960$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Yes	4c	949.68$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.93	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2cf…cd1fbacked Yes	4c	928.53$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.12	44	20.5%9 W · 35 L	+1.8wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6293…d14dbacked Yes	2c	650$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-85.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	4c	620.06$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.39	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	581$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.36	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	5c	548.14$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.42	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	5c	464.43$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.83	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.27	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x618a…ae0ebacked Yes	3c	352.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	6c	349$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event