Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd08056dee526375e4a4ec411cd1dc0026ca76413a7ee135a658b6a8e8f219b9

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $390,621
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $271,318

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $390,621 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 307 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	16c	28,567$4,624 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,624	186	16.1%30 W · 156 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	3c	16,409$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$534.97	405	19.8%80 W · 325 L	-18.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	4c	14,759$565 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$564.8	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	6c	10,065$605 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$604.6	161	22.4%36 W · 125 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	1c	8,678$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.84	270	24.4%66 W · 204 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	12c	6,815$799 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$798.55	630	21.7%137 W · 493 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	17c	6,000$1,023 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,022.63	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	16c	5,997$974 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$974.36	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	4c	5,562$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.27	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	10c	4,754$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.94	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes	27c	4,612$1,244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,243.51	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	10c	4,341$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.61	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd376…231dbacked Yes	20c	4,248$857 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$857.01	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	8c	3,937$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$323.27	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	14c	3,543$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.47	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	17c	3,479$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$597.6	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	13c	2,906$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.69	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	9c	2,801$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.92	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	20c	2,737$557 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$557.14	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	7c	2,600$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.95	324	15.7%51 W · 273 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	7c	2,597$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.92	211	22.3%47 W · 164 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	13c	2,500$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.51	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	15c	2,491$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.95	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	13c	2,464$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.82	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes	18c	2,382$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.34	151	28.5%43 W · 108 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	12c	2,228$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.11	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	5c	2,100$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.9	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42b8…1305backed No	77c	2,089$1,612 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$477.74	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	+4.1wins	+0.07per pick	37cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	11c	2,035$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.67	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	20c	1,879$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.18	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	24c	1,828$432 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.1	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	11c	1,824$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.35	119	26.9%32 W · 87 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	8c	1,731$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.98	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes	8c	1,728$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.67	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	15c	1,709$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.39	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes	24c	1,640$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.41	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	12c	1,584$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.57	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Yes	7c	1,528$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	50	14%7 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	10c	1,500$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.14	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	13c	1,497$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.22	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	76c	1,465$1,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$345.03	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	4c	1,456$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.8	197	31%61 W · 136 L	+13.8wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+22%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked No	77c	1,450$1,116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.78	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+145.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	1,376$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.51	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	7c	1,360$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.94	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	18c	1,347$245 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.17	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fac…3e5abacked Yes	3c	1,342$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.68	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	22cpaid	+25.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	9c	1,335$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.91	177	17.5%31 W · 146 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes	14c	1,327$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.26	50	24%12 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	17c	1,249$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$209.65	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	15c	1,245$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.16	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9611…e89ebacked Yes	16c	1,236$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.05	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes	17c	1,228$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ccf…bdb5backed Yes	17c	1,218$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.47	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7f00…487fbacked Yes	8c	1,200$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.15	280	16.4%46 W · 234 L	+8.8wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	34c	1,194$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	21c	1,193$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.5	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	8c	1,140$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.31	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	12c	1,126$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.27	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes	13c	1,106$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.64	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	26c	1,098$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.2	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	6c	1,093$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.35	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	18c	1,086$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.49	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	15c	1,076$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.18	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	13c	1,075$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.08	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7111…7c21backed Yes	33c	1,047$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.2	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No	73c	1,032$750 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.96	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	9c	1,016$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes	15c	953.96$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.21	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes	5c	936.86$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.63	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	38cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	2c	936$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.76	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	9c	926.19$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.1	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e5a…935fbacked No	69c	906.62$624 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$282.42	48	35.4%17 W · 31 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes	12c	846.82$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.68	97	33%32 W · 65 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58a5…ec93backed No	80c	836$669 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.25	30	83.3%25 W · 5 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	80cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	23c	827.83$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.72	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	5c	822$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.83	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b1a…639dbacked Yes	25c	800$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	40	25%10 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	12c	785.88$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.54	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc466…3f77backed Yes	9c	782.24$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.02	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked No	75c	757.02$564 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$192.58	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	19c	746.72$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.88	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	11c	737.47$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.82	188	14.4%27 W · 161 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c02…b65fbacked Yes	14c	728.99$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	18c	722.76$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.59	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	711.67$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.26	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes	14c	696.36$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.29	116	43.1%50 W · 66 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	12c	673.02$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.38	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	7c	650$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.14	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No	73c	612.99$447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.57	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+12.4wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	8c	600$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes	15c	584.43$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.18	118	47.5%56 W · 62 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…a070backed Yes	13c	557.87$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.81	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	-1.9wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	9c	555.67$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.6	122	16.4%20 W · 102 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	17c	549.55$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.33	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	8c	539.67$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.76	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	80c	536.71$428 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.42	73	71.2%52 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	15c	522.19$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.33	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7507…e850backed Yes	6c	516.91$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x433e…6be1backed Yes	16c	509.37$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	90	24.4%22 W · 68 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event