TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$80,266
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$49,250

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,266 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes2c18,927$360 inLost-$360.251834.4%8 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes5c3,630$174 inLost-$174.4116222.2%36 W · 126 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes1c3,351$31 inLost-$30.715535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes5c2,703$125 inLost-$124.8163821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes1c2,507$18 inLost-$17.952009%18 W · 182 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+173%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes3c1,719$57 inLost-$56.951194.2%5 W · 114 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes5c1,699$83 inLost-$82.732,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes3c1,040$29 inLost-$29.2682714.9%123 W · 704 L+1.9wins0.00per pick15cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes7c958.83$69 inLost-$68.512227%33 W · 89 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes3c900$26 inLost-$25.6832615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf331…55c3backed Yes5c779.63$42 inLost-$41.690%0 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes2c751.62$13 inLost-$13.3825012.8%32 W · 218 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes4c588.68$26 inLost-$26.410512.4%13 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes5c547.86$30 inLost-$302777.9%22 W · 255 L+0.6wins0.00per pick8cpaid+35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c376.1$17 inLost-$16.612,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes4c311$12 inLost-$12.441817.7%14 W · 167 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes3c291.67$10 inLost-$10.1732917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes6c200.42$12 inLost-$12.075345.3%24 W · 29 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes5c199.31$10 inLost-$10.056011.7%7 W · 53 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.