Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcfb3ca6686ec0b1bb8df3d67ddd649bef88bb6ea9df3b3bee3a46f2ca26d52bb

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $236,213
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $126,397

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $236,213 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 119 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	6c	20,588$1,314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,313.98	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	13,856$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.3	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	9,119$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.62	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,555$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.67	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	4,505$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.49	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	0c	4,495$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.98	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	1c	4,474$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.94	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	14c	4,000$558 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$558.28	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	10c	3,746$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.39	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	3,093$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.56	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	3,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes	13c	2,872$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$374.97	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	2c	2,800$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.34	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	2,722$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.46	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	1c	2,700$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.4	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	16c	2,597$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.99	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,559$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.46	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	2c	2,252$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.6	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	2,171$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	4c	2,163$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.22	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	11c	2,100$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.5	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd376…231dbacked Yes	12c	1,922$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	3c	1,662$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.64	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	1c	1,634$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.13	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes	1c	1,593$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.6	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	9c	1,532$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.85	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	1c	1,500$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	8c	1,472$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.07	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes	17c	1,394$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.32	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	1,170$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.3	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,141$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.02	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	7c	1,119$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.17	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes	9c	1,114$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.05	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes	8c	1,102$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.24	161	24.2%39 W · 122 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes	5c	1,066$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.25	80	2.5%2 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	10c	1,036$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.93	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	4c	1,034$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.65	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	16c	1,000$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.03	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes	10c	953.49$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.09	105	12.4%13 W · 92 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	1c	898.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	10c	854.18$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	838.49$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.67	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	11c	825.26$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.04	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	752.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.53	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	9c	721.55$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.89	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	7c	719.22$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.09	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	4c	653.5$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.61	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x00dc…d521backed Yes	15c	611.07$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.22	43	30.2%13 W · 30 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	30cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	17c	560.81$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.02	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	6c	550$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.25	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	8c	537.69$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.22	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	6c	517.43$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.29	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	3c	502.72$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.04	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	9c	499.89$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.29	47	14.9%7 W · 40 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	495.49$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	10c	490$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.96	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	8c	470.82$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.06	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6442…cdc3backed Yes	11c	458$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	11c	457.06$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.25	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	79c	445.93$353 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$93.2	73	71.2%52 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes	3c	438.16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	158	17.7%28 W · 130 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes	5c	406.07$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.89	90	18.9%17 W · 73 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c66…01d9backed Yes	12c	400$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.46	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fbd…d0e7backed Yes	12c	400$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.78	27	37%10 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	35cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	21c	400$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.4	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa45f…4f97backed Yes	12c	399.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.55	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	39cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	375.99$301 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$75.2	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb77f…8b69backed Yes	13c	369.99$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.6	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes	21c	368.42$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77	101	25.7%26 W · 75 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x49e2…0124backed Yes	13c	355.62$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.49	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes	6c	354.91$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.37	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+102.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3107…fe91backed Yes	13c	341$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.3	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	+18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca20…ae4ebacked Yes	15c	339.29$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.41	44	31.8%14 W · 30 L	+3.6wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6de…8d6abacked Yes	13c	331.47$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.8	28	39.3%11 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	37cpaid	+31.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcefe…895dbacked Yes	14c	329.78$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.73	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	+31%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98f7…e2a4backed Yes	14c	319$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.21	27	33.3%9 W · 18 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	+21%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x220c…8853backed Yes	14c	310$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.72	25	32%8 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0630…3fcdbacked Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.3	25	40%10 W · 15 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	35cpaid	+34.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2594…bacdbacked Yes	14c	300$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	24	33.3%8 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc0…6bb7backed Yes	14c	300$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.75	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6977…936fbacked Yes	10c	299.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.54	25	40%10 W · 15 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe608…f6e8backed Yes	5c	288.9$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes	17c	279.93$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.61	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ccf…bdb5backed Yes	10c	275.17$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.6	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes	15c	267.44$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.48	152	21.1%32 W · 120 L	+3.6wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes	8c	259.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	20.9%37 W · 140 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Yes	6c	257$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.52	69	39.1%27 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa03c…9a81backed Yes	6c	254.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x01da…07bebacked Yes	13c	250$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	143	20.3%29 W · 114 L	+6.9wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+82.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes	5c	225.73$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.89	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed32…df4abacked Yes	7c	207.71$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.25	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e3b…05aabacked Yes	16c	206.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.04	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xca24…686bbacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.95	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-2.8wins	-0.15per pick	38cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb7e4…b67bbacked Yes	5c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-2.1wins	-0.10per pick	32cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc86e…5632backed Yes	5c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-3.0wins	-0.12per pick	36cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0de6…9933backed Yes	5c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.59	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	32cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7557…7579backed Yes	19c	200$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.86	49	26.5%13 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.62	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72c3…62e4backed Yes	5c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.93	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-2.8wins	-0.13per pick	35cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event