TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$310,451
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$209,626

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $310,451 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes1c26,320$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.11834.4%8 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes4c21,558$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.8418616.1%30 W · 156 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes2c18,994$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.616122.4%36 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes2c11,485$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.5732415.7%51 W · 273 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes0c8,696$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.995525.6%31 W · 521 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes1c6,490$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.7215128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes0c6,394$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7979711.3%90 W · 707 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes0c6,000$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.641999%18 W · 181 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+174.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes7c4,908$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.116936.2%25 W · 44 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes2c4,241$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.1914037.1%52 W · 88 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes1c3,800$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.518511.4%21 W · 164 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c3,733$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.431,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes1c3,687$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.671,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes1c3,333$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20419.8%4 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-48.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes9c3,218$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.5963021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$303134.8%15 W · 298 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes4c3,000$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1285718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed Yes7c3,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2106026.7%16 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ccf…bdb5backed Yes5c2,729$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.771816.7%3 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick23cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes1c2,720$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3510710.3%11 W · 96 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes2c2,299$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5641310.7%44 W · 369 L+0.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid+12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes2c2,128$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8117419%33 W · 141 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes3c2,104$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5630317.2%52 W · 251 L+8.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes1c1,812$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.532097.7%16 W · 193 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes1c1,780$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.421174.3%5 W · 112 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes4c1,703$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.896920.3%14 W · 55 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+207.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes13c1,672$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.682,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes2c1,589$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6211926.9%32 W · 87 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes4c1,588$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.6615817.7%28 W · 130 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes2c1,507$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.228812.8%37 W · 251 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes3c1,301$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.335588.2%46 W · 512 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes2c1,223$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6619118.8%36 W · 155 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes7c1,207$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.7457420.9%120 W · 454 L+9.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes2c1,084$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.927024.4%66 W · 204 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcadc…4285backed Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109728.9%28 W · 69 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick26cpaid+14.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes6c910.39$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.121,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes8c851.9$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$656026.7%16 W · 44 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes2c826.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.711,03611.1%115 W · 921 L+4.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes2c804.41$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1932613.8%45 W · 281 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-60.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes2c799.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.61008%8 W · 92 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes14c762.53$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3470616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes6c700$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.935112.8%45 W · 306 L+6.6wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+23.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes2c671.5$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.842729.6%8 W · 19 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-50.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe559…1300backed Yes12c521.18$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$609226.1%24 W · 68 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes14c512.1$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.6853222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes2c507.69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0733231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes15c498$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.184216.7%7 W · 35 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca20…ae4ebacked Yes2c464.59$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.694431.8%14 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes3c455.79$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.41824.4%8 W · 174 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+18.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4487618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes9c388.8$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.6932917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes3c382.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8388210.3%91 W · 791 L-4.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes16c364.41$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1324524.9%61 W · 184 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes10c337.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2518814.4%27 W · 161 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+21%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes3c324.95$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1142110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes14c320.28$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8473115.2%111 W · 620 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes7c295.8$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.814912.2%6 W · 43 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+7.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes14c294.98$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5610512.4%13 W · 92 L+0.1wins0.00per pick12cpaid-29.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf77…1488backed Yes7c272.71$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.234418.2%8 W · 36 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-48.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5fff…3cf1backed Yes16c259.98$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.6407.5%3 W · 37 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick9cpaid+52.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfec6…1cf1backed Yes5c210.53$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes17c209$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.5345911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145413%7 W · 47 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3db2…0f2ebacked Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207631.6%24 W · 52 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes10c190$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1731224.7%77 W · 235 L-0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes12c165.87$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.387917.2%151 W · 728 L+2.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2140016.8%67 W · 333 L-0.5wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c0f…a214backed Yes15c133.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-41.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes16c132$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.1246137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5dae…0590backed Yes16c114.29$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.294136.6%15 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x73b5…e8a3backed Yes14c107.14$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159018.9%17 W · 73 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes14c105.47$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1547510.5%50 W · 425 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x048e…549dbacked Yes15c104.43$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.66955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0aa…13b3backed Yes12c102.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.93330.3%10 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1457811.4%66 W · 512 L+19.8wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ea9…575fbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+30.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe43d…3978backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1119925.1%50 W · 149 L+0.8wins0.00per pick25cpaid+7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes15c78.65$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1247032.6%153 W · 317 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes15c69$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1899410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 21 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.