Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x75d52de5b7c0af3486016ef87a4029263ec259cb9bf9b44271d66a1c3fa0e34a

Rebuilt 27 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 31, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $438,478
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $371,840

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $438,478 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 320 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	6c	91,734$5,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,699.99	138	15.9%22 W · 116 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-60.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	23c	34,832$8,075 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,074.83	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	5c	10,860$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$523.13	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No	74c	8,731$6,488 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,243.44	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x127e…3dd8backed Yes	39c	8,309$3,269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,269.49	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	14c	7,958$1,140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,139.83	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No	77c	6,490$5,016 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,473.78	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	33c	5,234$1,715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,715.18	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	6c	5,046$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.72	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	9c	4,798$431 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$431.48	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes	27c	3,984$1,072 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,071.61	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	19c	3,325$645 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$645.06	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	69c	3,304$2,295 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,008.51	564	29.8%168 W · 396 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	10c	3,004$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.96	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	30c	3,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe1a3…24eabacked Yes	17c	2,787$471 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.62	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-48.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	22c	2,469$537 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.38	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	18c	2,449$449 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$449	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	13c	2,385$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.59	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	29c	2,370$694 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$693.77	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	17c	2,325$385 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.44	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac43…3a33backed Yes	23c	2,231$513 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$512.8	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+15%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	37c	2,230$832 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$831.65	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked No	57c	2,164$1,233 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$930.89	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb44…d480backed Yes	26c	2,020$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$534.24	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	15c	2,019$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.6	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	31c	2,016$620 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.87	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ae…b85ebacked Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	20c	1,823$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.71	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	22c	1,700$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$377.85	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	32c	1,635$523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$522.83	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x657b…2094backed Yes	32c	1,610$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.92	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed No	55c	1,545$855 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$690.01	83	24.1%20 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	7c	1,524$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.87	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	20c	1,500$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.2	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	20c	1,500$299 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.86	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	6c	1,357$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.07	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes	23c	1,241$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	31c	1,239$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$385.53	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	20c	1,228$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$246.93	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	58c	1,213$709 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$503.28	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes	15c	1,211$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.67	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	68c	1,200$810 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$390	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	79c	1,196$945 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250.49	73	71.2%52 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	60c	1,183$713 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$470.79	208	57.2%119 W · 89 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No	66c	1,175$775 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$399.76	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No	65c	1,157$755 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401.87	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	8c	1,157$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.64	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	44c	1,137$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$505.76	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	20c	1,134$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.19	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	20c	1,129$228 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.47	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No	67c	1,126$759 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$366.78	105	56.2%59 W · 46 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe559…1300backed Yes	45c	1,117$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9611…e89ebacked Yes	31c	1,110$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	22c	1,110$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.01	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	37c	1,101$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.91	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	20c	1,089$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.73	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	26c	1,078$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.71	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	25c	1,029$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.64	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc581…0f24backed Yes	49c	1,023$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.49per pick	49cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	18c	1,012$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.84	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes	27c	1,010$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.36	106	29.2%31 W · 75 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	14c	1,005$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.17	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	28c	1,000$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.58	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb816…9e90backed Yes	9c	999.99$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.5	60	33.3%20 W · 40 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+74.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x90af…a42cbacked No	61c	982.76$597 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$385.74	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	69cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	59c	975.73$572 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$403.99	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	15c	974.45$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.95	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No	67c	912.26$610 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$302.26	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	44c	905.28$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	57c	899.94$512 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.37	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	25c	861.91$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.16	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed No	62c	858.45$531 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$327.82	151	28.5%43 W · 108 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d46…d383backed Yes	22c	819.4$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaabb…daf3backed Yes	27c	800$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.4	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	+7.9wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+66.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	22c	788.72$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.81	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes	7c	761.3$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.82	121	6.6%8 W · 113 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No	71c	714.58$505 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$209.7	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked No	63c	692$438 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.29	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	67c	681.94$456 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$226.23	221	60.2%133 W · 88 L	+4.6wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	14c	656.9$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.23	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x159f…4043backed Yes	16c	656.23$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.21	87	21.8%19 W · 68 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	7c	609.84$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.39	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No	69c	602.96$418 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.89	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	29c	602.02$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.88	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	16c	596.48$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.95	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes	6c	594.98$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.79	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9068…e0d2backed Yes	34c	589.65$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.03	160	24.4%39 W · 121 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	12c	586.72$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.25	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	31c	563$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.71	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No	60c	539.29$322 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$217.29	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+12.4wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c11…ef93backed Yes	26c	539$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.8	35	22.9%8 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No	66c	527.75$349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.07	101	51.5%52 W · 49 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	13c	525.58$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9307…8910backed Yes	19c	521.23$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	153	12.4%19 W · 134 L	+5.7wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+27.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	14c	499.99$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.9	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	32c	499.99$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	12c	496.4$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.12	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f87…2b4dbacked Yes	40c	485.37$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.88	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event