NBA · resolved market
Spread: Spurs (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x304df19bf58f34cba992689b14b0bb6fab465604dc89a9d048f7f9af37a53ede
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Spurs, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $712,522
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $716,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $712,522 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Spurs | 45c | 690,848$310,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310,195.53 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Grizzlies | 55c | 296,012$162,807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133,205.33 | 262 | 53.8%141 W · 121 L | +10.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Grizzlies | 55c | 286,000$157,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128,700 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Grizzlies | 56c | 60,000$33,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,400 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…3081backed Grizzlies | 55c | 16,090$8,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,200.5 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Grizzlies | 54c | 13,767$7,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,263.87 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Grizzlies | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Spurs | 51c | 4,699$2,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,373.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Grizzlies | 56c | 4,500$2,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980 | 477 | 48.8%233 W · 244 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Grizzlies | 55c | 3,181$1,758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.04 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf5…cfebbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 3,000$1,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,320 | 480 | 54.2%260 W · 220 L | +14.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Grizzlies | 47c | 2,130$1,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,128.79 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | -11.1wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Grizzlies | 55c | 2,041$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.83 | 166 | 57.2%95 W · 71 L | +10.2wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd5…26ccbacked Grizzlies | 55c | 999.98$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.99 | 516 | 51%263 W · 253 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Grizzlies | 55c | 903$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.35 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Spurs | 53c | 675.53$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.72 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc1…fdc6backed Grizzlies | 45c | 625$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.75 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…04ebbacked Spurs | 54c | 553.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f9…fee2backed Grizzlies | 47c | 491.49$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.49 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00f…c254backed Grizzlies | 52c | 400.61$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.83 | 191 | 47.1%90 W · 101 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Grizzlies | 46c | 400$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Grizzlies | 42c | 399.98$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.99 | 289 | 29.4%85 W · 204 L | -13.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedc6…314abacked Grizzlies | 53c | 380.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.67 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…6ad7backed Grizzlies | 49c | 355$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.2 | 107 | 51.4%55 W · 52 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa966…208bbacked Grizzlies | 53c | 291$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.3 | 173 | 49.1%85 W · 88 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff0…91fcbacked Grizzlies | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8738…222bbacked Grizzlies | 58c | 258.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.62 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | -9.4wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -20%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Spurs | 60c | 219$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4010…77d4backed Grizzlies | 49c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103 | 481 | 46.2%222 W · 259 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…9ef9backed Grizzlies | 58c | 189.66$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.66 | 217 | 53%115 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Spurs | 49c | 188.58$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.56 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9569…27fdbacked Grizzlies | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 139 | 59.7%83 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Grizzlies | 55c | 135.54$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e06…b0d9backed Grizzlies | 56c | 125$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b46…944cbacked Grizzlies | 58c | 94.83$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.83 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Spurs | 40c | 92.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc2…6d7dbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 92.23$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.58 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 52cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Spurs | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 572 | 50%286 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…bd0bbacked Spurs | 45c | 88.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -6.4wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Spurs | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Grizzlies | 56c | 86.82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b6…c7dbbacked Grizzlies | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Grizzlies | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Grizzlies | 55c | 68.45$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc82…6421backed Grizzlies | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 118 | 47.5%56 W · 62 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Grizzlies | 56c | 54.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Spurs | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa0…dc16backed Grizzlies | 58c | 42.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1c3…be5abacked Grizzlies | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…052dbacked Grizzlies | 49c | 39.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…04a9backed Grizzlies | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…8ca5backed Grizzlies | 57c | 38.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb0…8826backed Spurs | 46c | 38.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 118 | 53.4%63 W · 55 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Grizzlies | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.31 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…901bbacked Grizzlies | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 100 | 60%60 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…9c15backed Grizzlies | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…d05dbacked Spurs | 45c | 31.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d6…d2e2backed Grizzlies | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba68…39d7backed Spurs | 45c | 25.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)this page
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Spurs vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Spurs vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.