NBA · resolved market
Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x351a6d9afc1ddc88a328645bef2284e29036d50ce9fb13b7cb859d4b28c99b6c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $73,349
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 50c | 30,000$15,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,000 | 197 | 54.3%107 W · 90 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 50c | 11,000$5,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,504.29 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e82…752cbacked Over | 50c | 7,652$3,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,825.39 | 1,204 | 55.3%666 W · 538 L | +52.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 6,774$3,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,389.55 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 52c | 6,712$3,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,518 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaefa…9472backed Under | 50c | 6,436$3,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,218 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 48c | 6,278$3,013 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,264.4 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…26bfbacked Over | 52c | 6,200$3,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,222 | 173 | 48.6%84 W · 89 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Under | 49c | 4,540$2,225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,315.32 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 4,315$2,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.75 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb603…754bbacked Under | 49c | 4,000$1,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 47c | 2,705$1,281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,423.69 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 47c | 2,013$956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.84 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x478f…f5d9backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.37 | 220 | 35.5%78 W · 142 L | -11.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 49c | 1,161$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.26 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 54c | 1,087$587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Under | 46c | 1,087$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 1,020$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 500.01$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.16 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2f…b226backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 49 | 44.9%22 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44bc…c53ebacked Under | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 191 | 49.7%95 W · 96 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Over | 48c | 436.75$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.64 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09e3…48acbacked Under | 48c | 407.69$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 147 | 46.9%69 W · 78 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff8…aa3abacked Under | 50c | 333$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.5 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…5e55backed Over | 52c | 207.69$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 625 | 46.9%293 W · 332 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf79a…56c2backed Under | 51c | 198.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 232 | 50.4%117 W · 115 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4b…14e2backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…9707backed Over | 52c | 134$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.68 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 49c | 112$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.79 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Under | 52c | 100.29$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.29 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc427…ee41backed Over | 51c | 86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.86 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Under | 49c | 84.59$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Under | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.63 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61b6…6ab2backed Over | 49c | 77.65$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 49c | 73.27$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.9 | 102 | 34.3%35 W · 67 L | -12.7wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 63$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d28…7a6dbacked Under | 49c | 60.75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 938 | 49.7%466 W · 472 L | +36.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 49c | 57.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8d…4dc6backed Under | 50c | 56.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.44 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0338…4f11backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 661 | 43.4%287 W · 374 L | -32.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…466abacked Under | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 116 | 42.2%49 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1725…7405backed Under | 49c | 40.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.81 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…f75cbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 50c | 36.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac98…7281backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 421 | 43.7%184 W · 237 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Under | 51c | 27.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95f…357fbacked Under | 49c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 52c | 21.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x829f…ccfdbacked Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 173 | 53.8%93 W · 80 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 238.5this page
- Spread: Spurs (-5.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Spurs (-6.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Spurs (-7.5)Grizzlies won
- Spurs vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Spurs vs. Grizzlies: 1H MoneylineSpurs won
- Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 237.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 239.5Under won
- Spurs vs. Grizzlies: O/U 240.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.