Commodities · resolved market
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x42e1d3ca50f2e4123832f2180468e8a95f37ecfc594ba20dfd8960bd4231b165
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,312
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,312 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 16c | 16,557$2,625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,624.57 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 5c | 9,735$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.73 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 79c | 7,530$5,931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,598.85 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed Yes | 3c | 4,927$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.88 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…2c87backed Yes | 31c | 4,835$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 5c | 4,161$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.33 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed Yes | 12c | 4,121$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$512.68 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +273.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 48c | 3,910$1,871 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,871 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 13c | 2,044$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.08 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 75c | 1,957$1,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.86 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 29c | 1,538$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452.17 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 15c | 1,431$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.54 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff6…521ebacked Yes | 25c | 1,426$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked Yes | 29c | 1,116$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.3 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes | 27c | 1,026$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.17 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x890e…7ec1backed Yes | 9c | 1,003$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d5…c665backed Yes | 10c | 866.68$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.82 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 5c | 756.54$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.97 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed No | 38c | 752.69$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.44 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f09…1f55backed Yes | 2c | 738.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 46c | 690.41$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.38 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 32c | 599.41$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.92 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 7c | 569.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.1 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 64c | 561.95$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.42 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 22c | 550$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.21 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 62c | 533$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.36 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 6c | 498.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +98%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 58c | 488.14$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.44 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 44c | 449.17$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.27 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 438.03$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.46 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 10c | 414.94$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 407.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.63 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 34c | 388.44$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.26 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 71c | 377.15$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed Yes | 62c | 362.5$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.9 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked No | 36c | 310.3$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.28 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Yes | 20c | 299.99$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 75c | 293.3$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.83 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed No | 28c | 289.67$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.54 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 49c | 272.21$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.36 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 59c | 254.27$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.2 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 28c | 241$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.44 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 77c | 227$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.98 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.65 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x272c…7f07backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +137.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 190.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 59c | 186.38$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.32 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 27c | 183.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…8aabbacked Yes | 11c | 170.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b0…a5fbbacked Yes | 35c | 164.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.56 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa069…718dbacked Yes | 8c | 155.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 23c | 148.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.26 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1819…5b1bbacked Yes | 70c | 148.64$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 44c | 146.36$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.99 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x154e…911fbacked Yes | 47c | 145.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 36c | 140.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.64 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…bad5backed Yes | 14c | 125$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 123.82$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.06 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x91a4…c5b3backed Yes | 9c | 122.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe347…b438backed No | 68c | 120.45$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 24c | 117.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 72 | 31.9%23 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fa…abcfbacked No | 61c | 117$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x088e…a0b6backed Yes | 18c | 112.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked No | 80c | 110$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 53c | 109$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.67 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…db1ebacked Yes | 39c | 102$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 75 | 32%24 W · 51 L | -11.1wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x97cb…c910backed No | 40c | 97.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 32c | 96.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.88 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc3…1f1fbacked Yes | 54c | 88.64$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 40c | 87.77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.71 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +5.3wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f08…54d3backed No | 65c | 87.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…7fe5backed Yes | 66c | 85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f95…7821backed Yes | 64c | 78.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 36c | 64.54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb03…5d15backed No | 70c | 62.95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…bf9ebacked Yes | 67c | 62.18$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 25c | 61.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 52c | 59.42$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 73c | 56.95$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 40 | 72.5%29 W · 11 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 50.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19a4…fa7abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 60cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62bc…97acbacked Yes | 30c | 49.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d6…d2e2backed Yes | 58c | 49.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 73c | 48.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.83 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…cb6cbacked Yes | 59c | 47.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 44c | 45.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0b…55e1backed Yes | 64c | 44.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed No | 64c | 44.17$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ea…2ec7backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 46c | 43.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 63c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 50c | 41.81$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…2cf6backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed Yes | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -52%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?this page
- Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Yes won
- Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?No won
- Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?No won
- Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.