Commodities · resolved market
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa69b716f943cc9eda37dbcaeda86ff21e4fde5918d8c5625951845bdb34aa49b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $144,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $139,614
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $144,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 0c | 21,963$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.93 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x360d…ca64backed Yes | 77c | 12,883$9,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,923.96 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…bdf9backed No | 25c | 12,728$3,178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,178.14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 14c | 8,981$1,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,280.25 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 60c | 7,431$4,451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,451.39 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed No | 5c | 5,000$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…aa95backed Yes | 53c | 3,881$2,045 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,835.7 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed Yes | 16c | 3,809$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,184.55 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +273.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked Yes | 21c | 2,311$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,835.93 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +98%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked No | 1c | 2,279$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40c9…664dbacked No | 77c | 2,246$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.24 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x389a…397dbacked Yes | 30c | 1,985$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,394.73 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 3c | 1,809$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48c7…e4b0backed Yes | 17c | 1,722$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.89 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa069…718dbacked No | 25c | 1,493$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 58c | 1,223$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.55 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…2db9backed No | 4c | 1,190$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 18cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 17c | 1,116$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.19 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…d588backed Yes | 19c | 1,039$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.28 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 10c | 1,019$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.57 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 988.15$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.54 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 65c | 986.48$641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.39 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb092…08fdbacked Yes | 26c | 941.97$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 23c | 938.55$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.88 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 55c | 857.66$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.57 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 837$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.49 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 5c | 763.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.45 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +9.2wins | +0.15per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 40c | 688$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.28 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 70c | 686.38$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.31 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 15c | 622.33$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.29 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 67c | 556.28$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.09 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 11c | 556.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.93 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 24c | 550.19$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.18 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…239abacked Yes | 76c | 547.68$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.21 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +78.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 48c | 514.56$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.62 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 54c | 508.42$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$233.35 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 482.27$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.97 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 22c | 460$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 50c | 443$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.11 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 20c | 406.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.71 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed Yes | 61c | 373.06$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.63 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 360.85$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.88 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 31c | 352.37$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.43 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked Yes | 21c | 344.9$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.57 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf2…70a4backed Yes | 27c | 339.95$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.52 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb75…f496backed Yes | 7c | 319.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.35 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +11.0wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +159.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 31c | 316.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.74 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99f…dc99backed No | 5c | 309.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fd5…382cbacked Yes | 30c | 300$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…8aabbacked Yes | 9c | 294.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed No | 12c | 278.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.82 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b54…76eabacked No | 17c | 271.62$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 76c | 239.98$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.59 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x391f…b017backed Yes | 21c | 234.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.74 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +66.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea2…2d33backed No | 32c | 227$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.67 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 23c | 226.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.35 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc1…db1ebacked Yes | 21c | 218.63$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd04…fbb0backed Yes | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 58c | 200$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.82 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -8.2wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 34c | 194.75$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…86ddbacked Yes | 28c | 185.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…1893backed Yes | 21c | 170.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.86 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7778…05b3backed No | 7c | 148$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 73c | 137.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 71c | 134$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.53 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 43c | 128$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.35 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 12c | 110.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…01e9backed Yes | 16c | 105.28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 7cpaid | +245.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 17c | 101.67$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.39 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe397…bfcbbacked No | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…58d1backed No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 76c | 97.4$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.69 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb470…46f1backed Yes | 25c | 96.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +292.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 73c | 94.47$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.28 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdba1…8239backed Yes | 22c | 82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.6 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.6wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf41c…ba2fbacked Yes | 27c | 78.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.47 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 74.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.52 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed Yes | 70c | 63.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.98 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 51.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.63 | 162 | 76.5%124 W · 38 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 73cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba8f…ad42backed No | 77c | 51.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23e…b010backed Yes | 35c | 48.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…7e67backed Yes | 30c | 47.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed Yes | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d17…c3dabacked Yes | 26c | 40.03$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 32c | 39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa667…ceb3backed Yes | 75c | 35.87$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc77b…a526backed Yes | 71c | 33.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 54c | 32.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 194 | 19.1%37 W · 157 L | -35.8wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb528…9f54backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed No | 74c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 73cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78f…cf9bbacked No | 69c | 24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c56…0b1dbacked No | 63c | 22.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 74c | 22.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 75c | 21.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe703…af4ebacked Yes | 51c | 21.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…a387backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f3…8d50backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2184…00dfbacked Yes | 64c | 19.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 38cpaid | +8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1620…227bbacked No | 66c | 17.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 128 | 29.7%38 W · 90 L | -15.7wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?this page
- Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?No won
- Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?No won
- Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?No won
- Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.