Commodities · resolved market
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x330d50532f868a3a04b33a9d299ec09c68847cedbc839dded4412984338eb990
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $579,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $549,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $579,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 285 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbf1…86b5backed Yes | 62c | 31,250$19,502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,501.99 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 16c | 29,336$4,621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,620.86 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed No | 6c | 28,204$1,673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,530.75 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd71…d127backed No | 22c | 25,847$5,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,075.32 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 38cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x808d…ebfdbacked No | 76c | 20,455$15,556 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,898.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…72eebacked Yes | 77c | 18,969$14,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,531.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +56%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 71c | 14,107$9,955 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,954.52 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1,367.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed Yes | 70c | 11,132$7,831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,831.37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 3c | 10,117$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.64 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…ba26backed Yes | 71c | 9,801$7,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc004…c095backed Yes | 23c | 9,726$2,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,256.57 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 16c | 9,413$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,866.07 | 48 | 8.3%4 W · 44 L | -5.7wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 7c | 9,401$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,709.57 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x282a…f2c5backed Yes | 3c | 9,199$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf97…4653backed Yes | 53c | 7,819$4,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,114.54 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 19cpaid | +273.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 7,530$4,404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,126.3 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e3…3239backed Yes | 64c | 6,543$4,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,204.33 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…1766backed No | 21c | 6,360$1,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,012.28 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +4.4wins | +0.26per pick | 39cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…2c87backed Yes | 15c | 6,202$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4568…d9f6backed Yes | 2c | 5,214$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed Yes | 76c | 5,198$3,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,936.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.18per pick | 55cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7db8…ed19backed Yes | 51c | 4,976$2,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,521.01 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ccf…79d7backed No | 17c | 4,745$827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,918.79 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2383…34b1backed Yes | 78c | 4,593$3,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,605.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 36c | 4,510$1,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,892.41 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +98%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…3f79backed Yes | 42c | 4,017$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,702 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +242.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Yes | 68c | 3,703$2,512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,512.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa189…a2d5backed No | 33c | 3,266$1,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,193.78 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +275.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0049…3a9abacked Yes | 1c | 3,230$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…5723backed Yes | 7c | 3,042$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.76 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e49…f1afbacked Yes | 23c | 3,033$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.07 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 67c | 2,970$1,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.68 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 6c | 2,863$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,691.78 | 75 | 26.7%20 W · 55 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d61…1fa7backed Yes | 74c | 2,827$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,099.4 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 37c | 2,740$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,725.42 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -58%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…d5f3backed No | 35c | 2,730$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,770.78 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcacc…2eacbacked Yes | 10c | 2,729$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.93 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b67…b814backed Yes | 19c | 2,465$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.28 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74e6…99e8backed No | 29c | 2,437$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.12 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 31cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 36c | 2,200$792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,408.01 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed No | 32c | 2,200$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,505.99 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 10c | 2,040$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,839.59 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 15c | 2,021$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.33 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x407d…1baebacked No | 32c | 2,000$644 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,356 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 34cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc26…32cabacked No | 28c | 2,000$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,437 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed No | 15c | 1,959$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,670.41 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5bd…f03ebacked No | 22c | 1,945$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,514.73 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc435…2494backed Yes | 1c | 1,874$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…93c8backed No | 28c | 1,800$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291.6 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x890e…7ec1backed Yes | 20c | 1,681$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 1,675$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.24 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff52…4546backed Yes | 12c | 1,670$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.5 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +4.8wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed No | 36c | 1,662$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.02 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x85f9…86ddbacked Yes | 74c | 1,549$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,151.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x279c…2b82backed Yes | 9c | 1,546$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 36c | 1,500$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.11 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc96e…f1f9backed No | 28c | 1,500$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,075.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 22c | 1,477$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,149.83 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed Yes | 68c | 1,471$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58e0…5136backed No | 17c | 1,199$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb1…276cbacked No | 60c | 1,130$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.21 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +4.6wins | +0.19per pick | 43cpaid | +283%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…bf99backed Yes | 2c | 1,111$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.22 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 8c | 1,108$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.55 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked No | 10c | 1,105$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$996.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 21cpaid | +368.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 26c | 1,100$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.8 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -58%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94cf…d339backed Yes | 4c | 1,055$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -39%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 46c | 1,051$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.9 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes | 33c | 1,020$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.99 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked No | 37c | 1,000$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.82 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed No | 1c | 1,000$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$988.04 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +268.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 66c | 1,000$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd4…194bbacked Yes | 73c | 1,000$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.71 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dea…045ebacked No | 13c | 949.86$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$827.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +252.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes | 64c | 903.1$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.37 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -64%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x797f…aa36backed No | 6c | 899.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +199.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b0…9d34backed No | 54c | 884.27$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.27 | 40 | 65%26 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd6…5f62backed No | 31c | 848.33$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 54c | 839.21$449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.96 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e81…258dbacked Yes | 69c | 807.31$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$555 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 46c | 799.97$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.99 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 19c | 788.97$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.35 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 20c | 758.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$604.46 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7efc…7565backed Yes | 4c | 752.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b0…a817backed Yes | 66c | 707.11$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.49 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 34c | 700.74$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.44 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74cb…ae6dbacked Yes | 7c | 651.29$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 70c | 650.01$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.83 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5136…0e4fbacked No | 25c | 646.68$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 45c | 622.33$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.47 | 67 | 19.4%13 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 3c | 607.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 49 | 14.3%7 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…df68backed No | 35c | 600$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +182.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74b…ee88backed No | 35c | 580.99$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.22 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc98b…6430backed No | 13c | 576.61$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.61 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.2wins | +0.35per pick | 43cpaid | +197.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…ef84backed No | 28c | 559.99$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.54 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf23…0d5dbacked Yes | 40c | 558$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +5.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 56c | 532.57$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43f7…35e5backed Yes | 78c | 514.69$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x254c…7174backed No | 30c | 503.04$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked No | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +116.7%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?this page
- Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?No won
- Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Yes won
- Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?No won
- Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.