AI · resolved market
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xea81964ffffae37e24bf4bf09e7c265ea1d850eae146d802ca0ad293bfa614da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $565,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $626,869
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $565,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 314 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed No | 3c | 26,594$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$732.53 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…a80dbacked No | 15c | 26,276$3,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,888.55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaae9…d661backed No | 21c | 25,915$5,392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,392.18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +60.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ecc…2ca8backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e72…7ebabacked No | 1c | 16,514$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4a…fdfebacked No | 1c | 15,600$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 11c | 13,643$1,452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,451.55 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27e1…508bbacked No | 0c | 12,428$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…cb82backed No | 3c | 11,704$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…5e3abacked No | 0c | 10,784$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93f…445dbacked No | 3c | 10,237$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.49 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed No | 9c | 8,375$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$777.87 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 26c | 7,521$1,972 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,971.66 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x853c…bd03backed No | 34c | 6,994$2,384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,384.21 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed No | 12c | 6,756$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$799.5 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…511abacked No | 12c | 5,773$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7578…6426backed Yes | 72c | 5,613$4,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.65 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 43cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x11cb…e8c0backed No | 2c | 5,354$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e4…1e2fbacked No | 2c | 5,090$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1437…acfebacked No | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 0%0 W · 39 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…5cdcbacked Yes | 67c | 4,884$3,254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.45 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 4,838$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.93 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfa41…9376backed No | 25c | 4,535$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 69c | 4,278$2,943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,335.12 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbef…9ab0backed No | 29c | 3,902$1,140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,139.99 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 80c | 3,474$2,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$707.76 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 76c | 3,459$2,615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.22 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4d…dcadbacked No | 27c | 3,371$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$910.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a72…750ebacked No | 2c | 3,260$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe98e…9372backed Yes | 65c | 3,200$2,077 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 12c | 2,769$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.36 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 15c | 2,716$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.55 | 144 | 21.5%31 W · 113 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3412…fff1backed No | 8c | 2,593$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ca…f36fbacked No | 18c | 2,509$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fe…24e5backed No | 13c | 2,371$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.49 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaca…0d85backed No | 16c | 2,311$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf63b…e23dbacked Yes | 70c | 2,275$1,593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.44 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 76c | 2,262$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.4 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e64…29ccbacked Yes | 67c | 2,247$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf097…b974backed No | 14c | 2,240$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1648…a676backed No | 10c | 2,191$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 21c | 2,086$444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x506f…e8bbbacked No | 2c | 2,030$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.96 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7090…a5ffbacked No | 30c | 2,025$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed Yes | 67c | 2,019$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 2,003$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.52 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 18c | 2,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b62…5203backed No | 25c | 1,955$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.41 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…d934backed No | 62c | 1,934$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe661…7816backed No | 24c | 1,908$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…7bd0backed Yes | 52c | 1,855$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$895.61 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0df…68d4backed No | 13c | 1,830$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…a208backed No | 7c | 1,828$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb13…2de9backed No | 15c | 1,820$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…5cb0backed No | 23c | 1,800$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fa…aeecbacked No | 25c | 1,741$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.12 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -84.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 24c | 1,735$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.64 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf115…b9f9backed No | 19c | 1,647$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a025backed Yes | 75c | 1,529$1,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.38 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes | 65c | 1,500$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.99 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…ffd4backed No | 13c | 1,500$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd905…ad7cbacked Yes | 79c | 1,475$1,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x123f…5143backed No | 16c | 1,461$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6250…8707backed No | 13c | 1,446$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.99 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca7…2fffbacked No | 18c | 1,439$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa211…657fbacked Yes | 69c | 1,430$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.51 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked Yes | 75c | 1,421$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.96 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8483…6d56backed No | 9c | 1,344$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddde…5acdbacked No | 19c | 1,269$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c70…f74dbacked No | 1c | 1,245$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6b…13f2backed No | 14c | 1,200$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 16c | 1,199$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.6 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 16c | 1,152$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.5 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd056…f1bebacked No | 21c | 1,127$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.27 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -67.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1975…f2d2backed No | 3c | 1,121$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b0…5b25backed Yes | 26c | 1,102$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7902…ef0dbacked No | 10c | 1,100$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1811…b071backed No | 32c | 1,025$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 55c | 1,023$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.06 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x025d…1a72backed No | 8c | 1,016$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb37a…f1b1backed No | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked Yes | 69c | 999.99$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 11c | 999.88$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad2…3a5dbacked No | 19c | 990.82$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f26…438bbacked No | 18c | 976.1$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5489…4ceebacked No | 27c | 960$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a2…54c2backed Yes | 80c | 947.84$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.66 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3368…2079backed No | 17c | 892.6$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x499f…c6a0backed No | 16c | 857.69$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c0…53f9backed Yes | 79c | 846.71$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.21 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…0d5bbacked No | 34c | 842.66$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff1…b83fbacked No | 12c | 838.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…3bb1backed No | 32c | 836.5$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.52 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -47%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc331…1d71backed No | 25c | 811.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 17c | 810.96$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.76 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 18c | 802.22$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.55 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832c…dbadbacked No | 13c | 800$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed No | 18c | 771.51$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942a…aedcbacked No | 13c | 738$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.94 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Claude 4.8 released by May 31?this page
- Claude 4.8 released by July 31?Yes won
- Claude 4.8 released by June 15?Yes won
- Claude 4.8 released by June 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.