TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2e6b…13f2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
75
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst CS2 at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT2544%11 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.75
France vs. England: England 2nd Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2026, EDT+111.7%+$26.94
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Argentina?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
England vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$192.16
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.91
France vs. Spain: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT+176%+$18.02
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$366.67
Norway vs. England: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$176.19
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 3 Colombia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Colombia vs. Ghana end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$65
Kai Havertz: 4+ shotsbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$263.75
England vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$1,010Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,010.44
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$34.48
Will the announcers say "Knee" during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA World Cup Match?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+37%+$5.4
Will the announcers say "Hydration Break" 5+ times during the Colombia vs Portugal FIFA World Cup Match?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.4
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$29.91
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$4.95
Argentina leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+73.6%+$29.44
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.5
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+105.4%+$52.72
Spain leading at halftime?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.2
All 25 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ODI Series England vs India: England vs Indiabacked India · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.18
T20 Series England vs India: England vs Indiabacked India · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royalsbacked Gujarat Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+98.3%+$74.55
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitalsbacked Kolkata Knight Riders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.6
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Punjab Kingsbacked Lucknow Super Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.36
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Royal Challengers Bengalurubacked Sunrisers Hyderabad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$8
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kingsbacked Gujarat Titans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+59.2%+$9.53
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indiansbacked Kolkata Knight Riders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$8.8
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Lucknow Super Giantsbacked Rajasthan Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+186.6%+$23.44
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabadbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$23.4
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royalsbacked Rajasthan Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.1
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giantsbacked Lucknow Super Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titansbacked Rajasthan Royals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.6
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kingsbacked Sunrisers Hyderabad · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$7
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+180.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick12cpaid-26.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-2.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 5, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLBlast resolved Aug 17, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+91.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)backed Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$4,213Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$1,807.88
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 17, 2026, EDT+140.8%+$24.73
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 23, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Asian League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Aug 6, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.55
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$164
GPT-5.5 released by April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$137Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Valorant — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will FURIA win CBLOL 2026 Split 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$46
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Basket Zaragoza vs. Valenciabacked Basket Zaragoza · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$245Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$245
All 1 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jul 22, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$115
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.