TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cincinnati Redsof St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$169,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$163,873

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $169,926 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8144…8472backed St. Louis Cardinals43c17,398$7,443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,442.7666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+55.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x927c…6633backed Cincinnati Reds66c15,289$10,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,268.857352.1%38 W · 35 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbd14…d62abacked St. Louis Cardinals39c12,918$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00024344.4%108 W · 135 L-11.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked St. Louis Cardinals29c8,157$2,353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,352.830647.4%145 W · 161 L-10.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed St. Louis Cardinals34c8,037$2,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,732.588,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e6b…13f2backed Cincinnati Reds70c6,021$4,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,807.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+91.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7032…2975backed Cincinnati Reds69c5,800$4,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ae…ce30backed St. Louis Cardinals34c5,201$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+35%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e3…e736backed Cincinnati Reds61c5,000$3,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9504742.6%20 W · 27 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals35c4,761$1,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,666.2210,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Cincinnati Reds58c4,677$2,712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.134,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0940…3640backed Cincinnati Reds63c4,233$2,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,578.812857.1%16 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ea6…180dbacked Cincinnati Reds69c4,000$2,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2401747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7c…51b6backed St. Louis Cardinals26c3,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick41cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6da3…95a0backed Cincinnati Reds69c2,770$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$858.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Cincinnati Reds58c2,405$1,395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,010.1711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Cincinnati Reds61c2,000$1,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78055052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Cincinnati Reds62c2,000$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7602,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x954e…927fbacked St. Louis Cardinals27c2,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5407050%35 W · 35 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cincinnati Reds59c1,709$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$699.881,29151%658 W · 633 L-15.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2a…3706backed St. Louis Cardinals41c1,228$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.552339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Cincinnati Reds56c1,145$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.942259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+21%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5dd0…9192backed St. Louis Cardinals45c1,111$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Cincinnati Reds61c1,011$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.3365549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds61c1,001$613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.728,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2037…473dbacked Cincinnati Reds61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901926.3%5 W · 14 L-4.8wins-0.25per pick52cpaid-48.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd443…c069backed Cincinnati Reds61c1,000$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3901560%9 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbc4…a430backed St. Louis Cardinals41c1,000$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb11…7901backed Cincinnati Reds69c1,000$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3101100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds38c962.18$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$592.769,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed St. Louis Cardinals62c873.71$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed Cincinnati Reds55c829.47$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.266344.4%28 W · 35 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Cincinnati Reds53c751.53$398 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.227349.3%36 W · 37 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Cincinnati Reds61c713.26$435 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.173,79245.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L-5.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cincinnati Reds69c660$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.752,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed St. Louis Cardinals33c608.52$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.49757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb88a…f6adbacked St. Louis Cardinals42c600$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25228753.3%153 W · 134 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Cincinnati Reds60c587.45$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.981,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0373…6d6bbacked Cincinnati Reds62c564.52$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.524450%22 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5633…59bcbacked St. Louis Cardinals42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21027952%145 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06fa…d071backed St. Louis Cardinals39c492.69$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.297742.9%33 W · 44 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-15.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Cincinnati Reds62c424.71$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.522,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds61c421.43$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1656,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked St. Louis Cardinals31c385$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.639756.7%55 W · 42 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Cincinnati Reds61c340$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.61,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Cincinnati Reds60c327.79$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132.712850%14 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed St. Louis Cardinals38c292.32$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.0875049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Cincinnati Reds61c217.99$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.942,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x303a…7c84backed Cincinnati Reds56c190$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.071040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-35.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Cincinnati Reds62c186$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.6892054%497 W · 423 L+23.1wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Cincinnati Reds61c160$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.41,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed St. Louis Cardinals41c154.49$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.341,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1262…056fbacked Cincinnati Reds59c142$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2227448.2%132 W · 142 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0f…b7aebacked St. Louis Cardinals39c125$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7552638.4%202 W · 324 L+1.5wins0.00per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb213…49e1backed Cincinnati Reds76c122.26$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.3412956.6%73 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5123…2f31backed Cincinnati Reds54c115.28$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.62988.9%8 W · 1 L+4.1wins+0.45per pick44cpaid+106.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Cincinnati Reds61c113.1$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.111,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Cincinnati Reds52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$483256.3%18 W · 14 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+21.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked St. Louis Cardinals36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4158746%270 W · 317 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb1b…69f2backed Cincinnati Reds59c86.07$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.231,05648.3%510 W · 546 L-16.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed St. Louis Cardinals35c76.05$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.622,14439.6%849 W · 1,295 L+0.8wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed St. Louis Cardinals30c72.16$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2256435.1%198 W · 366 L-21.3wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x87f7…8f45backed St. Louis Cardinals41c67$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.4746444.4%206 W · 258 L-18.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-16.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked St. Louis Cardinals29c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.351,17249.1%575 W · 597 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2892…e9d7backed Cincinnati Reds59c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.534846.8%163 W · 185 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed St. Louis Cardinals36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Cincinnati Reds59c49.28$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.312,94547.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L+3.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1a8…6764backed St. Louis Cardinals38c49.02$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7326438.3%101 W · 163 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf112…fe03backed St. Louis Cardinals42c45.34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe935…3991backed St. Louis Cardinals34c42$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2810042%42 W · 58 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-19.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x091a…8287backed Cincinnati Reds62c40.32$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.376346%29 W · 34 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed St. Louis Cardinals38c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.21,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf44d…28b8backed St. Louis Cardinals38c35.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.42825%2 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked St. Louis Cardinals38c35.32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4245045.8%206 W · 244 L-10.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Cincinnati Reds61c34.49$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.453,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed St. Louis Cardinals38c31.41$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.081,80453.8%970 W · 834 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdca…5382backed St. Louis Cardinals36c30.41$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.955937.3%22 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+16.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked St. Louis Cardinals41c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.32,37649.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L+17.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe733…f6c9backed Cincinnati Reds71c28.17$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.176048.3%29 W · 31 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…5df1backed Cincinnati Reds62c22$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.364348.8%21 W · 22 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Cincinnati Reds62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.682741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71ac…5fd6backed Cincinnati Reds67c16.4$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.413458.8%20 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+14.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xae41…8311backed Cincinnati Reds68c16.04$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.122100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds74c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.164,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.