MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7b7f4f49eb23963a9ae22f10bc8f78fdd27454adc589f7badb1c56a1992b37c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 65c | 2,000$1,293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,292.94 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 59c | 1,987$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.44 | 1,386 | 50.6%702 W · 684 L | -23.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 64c | 1,927$1,237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.25 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 36c | 989$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.96 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Under | 41c | 933.2$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.59 | 1,635 | 49.3%806 W · 829 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 41c | 919$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.21 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 35c | 834.63$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.51 | 657 | 49.2%323 W · 334 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 66c | 833.33$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 878 | 50.5%443 W · 435 L | +12.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 35c | 788.91$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.8 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 42c | 773.29$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 8c | 494.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.93 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 57c | 490.19$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.02 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Over | 65c | 461.54$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 384 | 53.6%206 W · 178 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 11c | 456.61$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 1,848 | 49.6%917 W · 931 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 37c | 400$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 35c | 382.33$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.51 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa621…6e29backed Over | 65c | 298.37$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec37…85bdbacked Over | 48c | 285.2$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.9 | 100 | 31%31 W · 69 L | -14.0wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -35%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 52c | 252$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 240$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…606ebacked Over | 10c | 220$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84c2…09adbacked Under | 36c | 188.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 57c | 149.73$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.61 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 43c | 115.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.48 | 448 | 45.8%205 W · 243 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Over | 65c | 107.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.32 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 838 | 54.7%458 W · 380 L | +29.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 65c | 84$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 802 | 55%441 W · 361 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 39c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…44c3backed Over | 60c | 71.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.12 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 43c | 62.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.39 | 101 | 48.5%49 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…b2acbacked Under | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Over | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 73c | 35.65$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 60 | 66.7%40 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 36c | 28.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 38c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1400…765dbacked Over | 65c | 26.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f97…6aafbacked Over | 65c | 24.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 67c | 20.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -9.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7701…6ea2backed Over | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 170 | 51.8%88 W · 82 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06fa…d071backed Under | 55c | 18.21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 77 | 42.9%33 W · 44 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.