MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x35eb3e12dd1633b9d2a8f5b26da910117c57473614defc27e12102240babae16
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,468
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,360
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,468 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x547f…2937backed Under | 60c | 3,747$2,248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,498.77 | 138 | 56.5%78 W · 60 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 40c | 1,995$798 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$798 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Under | 57c | 1,281$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.45 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 40c | 935.2$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.08 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 43c | 920.34$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.79 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 41c | 750$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 43c | 568.74$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee0…d6a6backed Under | 52c | 550$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.5 | 114 | 64%73 W · 41 L | +12.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf490…63afbacked Under | 52c | 512.29$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.9 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 510.65$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.26 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 48c | 425.15$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Under | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd25…a624backed Under | 62c | 306.45$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.45 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 43c | 300$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 43c | 293.07$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.02 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Over | 43c | 191.98$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7982…968dbacked Over | 33c | 153.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 35c | 119.13$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51ae…ce30backed Over | 45c | 111.75$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Over | 43c | 111.74$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 40c | 98.21$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.28 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Under | 54c | 97.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.84 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 67c | 94.87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…93fcbacked Under | 56c | 92.65$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.77 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Over | 40c | 90.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…dbc6backed Over | 42c | 89.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…83adbacked Over | 49c | 83.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.09 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fb…c3cabacked Under | 59c | 81.03$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +5.7wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca2…1798backed Under | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Under | 67c | 63.68$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 81 | 42%34 W · 47 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x403c…7f06backed Over | 43c | 50.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 44c | 50.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6dd…7af9backed Over | 44c | 46.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 215 | 47%101 W · 114 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfae…155ebacked Over | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 40c | 35.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ce…feb1backed Over | 44c | 33.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -8.4wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked Over | 44c | 27.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…056fbacked Over | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 274 | 48.2%132 W · 142 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked Over | 42c | 26.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5123…2f31backed Under | 56c | 26.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +4.1wins | +0.45per pick | 44cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 67c | 25.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Over | 49c | 24.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 380 | 53.2%202 W · 178 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Under | 53c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +3.5wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea8…ddc0backed Under | 56c | 23.79$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 23.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 60c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati RedsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.