TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,835,669
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,790,377

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,835,669 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 486 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes10c183,026$18,528 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,528.31425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes8c84,232$6,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,551.555111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7523…4c4cbacked No72c82,075$58,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,167.43785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick69cpaid+29.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed Yes0c80,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16050%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed No53c55,439$29,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,226.2215150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes72c36,614$26,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,239.91450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+95.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6139…6b7abacked Yes22c31,442$7,055 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,054.982623.1%6 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed No35c27,752$9,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,968.922646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked Yes7c24,480$1,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,669.843548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked No17c23,042$3,948 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,093.961070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+68.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed No19c22,479$4,189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,289.721033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked No5c21,662$1,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,496.684835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No52c18,477$9,697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,780.14580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+78.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed No7c17,269$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,122.852536%9 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+99.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes59c15,803$9,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,261.597749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked No8c15,660$1,297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,362.361172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+219.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked No5c15,637$816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,821.483920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes28c15,580$4,348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,348.192927.6%8 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c15,000$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No50c13,155$6,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,520.713743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked No45c12,942$5,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,079.1814356.6%81 W · 62 L+18.5wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+19.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x4cc3…7552backed No6c12,661$802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,858.824729.8%14 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No52c11,705$6,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,675.899035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes44c11,471$5,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,084.5713625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a75…7d66backed Yes1c10,943$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes22c10,377$2,319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,319.342532%8 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ff…5b03backed Yes2c10,360$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.7860%0 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No17c10,242$1,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,551.6734333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes74c10,000$7,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3501764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+73.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf1f…5c1abacked Yes43c10,000$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,299.98250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…d7cebacked Yes0c9,343$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes9c8,949$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.93128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-87.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0b1…a837backed No43c7,956$3,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,543.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+133.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes39c7,331$2,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,860.643237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes33c7,211$2,395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,395.49378.1%3 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-86.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x88c4…129abacked Yes61c7,178$4,372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,371.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e25…9712backed Yes23c7,143$1,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,630.7920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed Yes50c6,508$3,243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,242.84333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No45c6,190$2,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,426.3613143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc002…6f57backed Yes1c6,040$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.02333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6b…13f2backed Yes1c5,990$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.7520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No71c5,920$4,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,726.1510947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb17d…59aebacked Yes3c5,829$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.051060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid-19.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7820…5723backed No60c5,538$3,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,204.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e9a…f3bbbacked Yes33c5,330$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,754.9825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-40.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked No19c5,077$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,122.26520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6404…f250backed No39c5,075$1,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,079.311040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked Yes31c4,740$1,493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,492.913426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes56c4,657$2,631 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,631.023429.4%10 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No16c4,514$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,783.94911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-31.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes69c4,335$2,979 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,979.053145.2%14 W · 17 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-37.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes57c4,016$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,272.71250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Yes11c4,000$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.852516%4 W · 21 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick21cpaid-21.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9648…6825backed No4c3,779$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,638.64922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick28cpaid+215.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked No61c3,777$2,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,469.537639.5%30 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No58c3,695$2,149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,546.331957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No43c3,659$1,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,071.134346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No55c3,578$1,961 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,616.3418237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked Yes35c3,574$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,243.93520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-72.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked No5c3,550$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,385.724630.4%14 W · 32 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No10c3,450$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,115.218638.4%33 W · 53 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed Yes46c3,303$1,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed No39c3,210$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,970.12633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed No47c3,177$1,496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,680.455244.2%23 W · 29 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8200…df37backed Yes70c3,130$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,2001346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d4b…ca7abacked No31c2,977$925 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,052.112657.7%15 W · 11 L+9.0wins+0.34per pick23cpaid+138.6%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x5d74…ee45backed Yes31c2,870$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.712842.9%12 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+32.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No50c2,807$1,407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,399.54847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43b9…5db9backed Yes67c2,716$1,831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,830.85520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick42cpaid-72%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No50c2,704$1,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,347.184841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No54c2,678$1,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,229.294032.5%13 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x808a…ef3fbacked No6c2,660$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,505.622254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.9wins+0.18per pick37cpaid+125.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa77…563bbacked Yes71c2,652$1,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,893.29250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No39c2,647$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,623.0110340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe570…084ebacked Yes27c2,603$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.33450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-31%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc624…ee24backed Yes75c2,583$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936.476355.6%35 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick56cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No27c2,545$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.634949%24 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x22b8…febdbacked No4c2,506$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,409.06250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick3cpaid+1,188%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked No5c2,506$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,384.628535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No63c2,445$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.3217140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Yes4c2,358$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.62714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked No11c2,349$258 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,091.032100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+419.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes32c2,346$745 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.8411522.6%26 W · 89 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-42.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed No72c2,284$1,652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.632147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No28c2,265$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,620.315139.2%20 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No44c2,244$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.845135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed No68c2,149$1,456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$692.385129.4%15 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-28.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb3a…5998backed Yes67c2,083$1,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,405.0620%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes44c2,070$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9011752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid+2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58ec…b7a9backed Yes64c2,068$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.41742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No46c2,042$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,112.664940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94ee…4a94backed No30c2,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4001100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+233.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0826…0b32backed Yes57c2,000$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,130.99540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-43.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No60c1,965$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.3421161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No54c1,963$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$905.658149.4%40 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes58c1,866$1,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,084.88728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ccf…79d7backed Yes78c1,838$1,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,441.8230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No20c1,817$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,450.084940.8%20 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No38c1,809$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,126.155137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked Yes15c1,803$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.1722833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.