TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will Sara Rodriguez win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,158

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,484 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xefac…c9a1backed No65c9,561$6,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,366.7134333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes41c8,203$3,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,332.343020%6 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-41.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1ca…1705backed Yes23c5,000$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1508042.5%34 W · 46 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+40.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes22c2,229$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.913625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes32c2,200$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696.9924433.2%81 W · 163 L+11.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-3.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc78e…4718backed Yes39c2,117$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.77837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-12%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3080…337bbacked No76c1,536$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.715030%15 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes6c1,246$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756030%18 W · 42 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked No68c751$511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.326750.7%34 W · 33 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No79c679.99$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.5218237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a8…2fb3backed Yes23c647.39$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.44633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes18c545.6$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.498332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c15…9667backed Yes22c473$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.067843.6%34 W · 44 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes19c391.04$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1349511.5%57 W · 438 L-17.6wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-27.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x86a6…1ac6backed Yes16c375$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602339.1%9 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked Yes18c358.18$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3416544.2%73 W · 92 L+10.8wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes7c335$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.16322.2%14 W · 49 L+0.2wins0.00per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb12e…8c6cbacked No72c331$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.91258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f9e…4f1abacked No64c329$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.9622833.8%77 W · 151 L+13.7wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+52.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes16c299$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.841369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.6wins+0.28per pick41cpaid+47.8%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No72c295.22$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.2410340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes18c288.95$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.1319643.4%85 W · 111 L+15.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No62c255.87$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.6510739.3%42 W · 65 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes20c239.01$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.3818310.4%19 W · 164 L-9.7wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x477f…19aabacked Yes11c237.87$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.177639.5%30 W · 46 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-24.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes13c232.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2621033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b49…2e46backed No68c224.25$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7cbd…1288backed No67c220$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.61323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-63.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f44…7470backed Yes29c218.8$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.092450%12 W · 12 L+3.5wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2c41…133ebacked No70c208.89$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.676154.1%33 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32f6…9538backed Yes41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2955…0738backed Yes28c188$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.174136.6%15 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes7c185$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.651042.9%3 W · 101 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x370e…5df3backed No79c182$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.767852.6%41 W · 37 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e3…67dcbacked Yes6c172.04$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.323961.5%24 W · 15 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick48cpaid+23.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5529…e5b9backed No69c171.02$118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4422948.9%112 W · 117 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No74c149.55$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3221155.9%118 W · 93 L+6.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbde…3dc9backed No78c147$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.17447.3%35 W · 39 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x936e…473fbacked No68c145.15$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.45666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+68.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No78c144$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.238343.4%36 W · 47 L-5.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No78c140$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.3720542%86 W · 119 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf143…4ef2backed No68c137.19$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+58.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes17c120.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.484723.4%11 W · 36 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick30cpaid-36.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c119.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59816.2%5 W · 76 L-0.3wins0.00per pick7cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11f8…ed31backed Yes33c114$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.291747.1%8 W · 9 L+2.2wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+168.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ac…f23dbacked Yes33c102.93$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.978741.4%36 W · 51 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323151.6%16 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes25c100$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2527222.1%60 W · 212 L-15.0wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-44.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No80c93.67$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1812150.4%61 W · 60 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb8a6…c13fbacked Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fb8…43b4backed Yes42c87.69$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5a6…3d19backed No72c83.74$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-53.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No77c83.1$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8334129.3%100 W · 241 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-25.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbcd6…f3c8backed No68c74.97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.993756.8%21 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xedc3…023dbacked Yes32c71.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed Yes30c66.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.687534.7%26 W · 49 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-37.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No74c65.09$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2266914.8%99 W · 570 L-105.6wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-66%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked No76c64$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5224861.7%153 W · 95 L+24.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+5.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Yes30c64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.215431.2%48 W · 106 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7034…9edebacked Yes32c61.53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.69250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81f3…eca5backed No75c59$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8728…0882backed Yes18c58.6$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3618041.1%74 W · 106 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes33c54.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.084643.5%20 W · 26 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e8…4878backed Yes29c54.63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x976e…ecf3backed Yes28c54$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.862055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-11.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No72c54$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.296653%35 W · 31 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+7.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c4…ea5cbacked No66c53.47$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.991560%9 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58b…ef84backed Yes22c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111216.7%2 W · 10 L-4.0wins-0.33per pick50cpaid-19.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2a20…89d2backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164146.3%19 W · 22 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-27.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d8c…757abacked No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.52050%10 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb924…0803backed Yes29c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.54833.3%16 W · 32 L-7.4wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-41.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xa86f…022cbacked Yes30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155637.5%21 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510034%34 W · 66 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-26.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc353…fa0bbacked Yes24c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127339.7%29 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…468fbacked Yes32c49.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.768541.2%35 W · 50 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes30c48.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4513317.3%23 W · 110 L-10.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd949…0b05backed No78c47.97$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00cd…c0aebacked No70c47.72$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.47785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+36.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5566…7c29backed No59c46$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.865255.8%29 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa784…3605backed Yes27c45.67$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.546221%13 W · 49 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-15.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No69c45$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.849147.3%43 W · 48 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes26c45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.51741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed Yes41c44.51$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.253438.2%13 W · 21 L-5.0wins-0.15per pick53cpaid-32.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x747b…a2d4backed Yes41c44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.841931.6%6 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes35c41.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.562231.8%7 W · 15 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd83a…f4e7backed Yes36c41.67$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1540%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb5d8…af42backed No69c40.19$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.29366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x292e…a8bbbacked Yes26c40.08$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6c…ee14backed No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.22774.1%20 W · 7 L+4.0wins+0.15per pick59cpaid+20.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No75c39.83$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.8333238.6%128 W · 204 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-30%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf05…33e2backed No72c39.21$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.11258.3%7 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-6.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c32…7156backed No66c38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.923855.3%21 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x86f0…610cbacked No59c33.89$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.891369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.15per pick55cpaid+42.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x07bb…fccabacked No68c29.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked No68c28.41$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.091957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed No65c26.54$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.293145.2%14 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3991…3d0fbacked No68c24.31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f18…dc6dbacked No70c19.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363c…4463backed No75c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-34.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.