TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Midterms · resolved market

Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,407,523
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,234,453

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,407,523 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 289 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbefa…300dbacked No0c103,283$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.67551.8%1 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-85.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x614e…4f1bbacked No0c100,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick20cpaid-69.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked No2c84,474$1,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,807.98520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed No8c83,871$6,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,649.895111.8%6 W · 45 L-0.2wins0.00per pick12cpaid-75.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6480…8dc5backed No0c75,000$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7550%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed No0c44,584$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.6425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick17cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes67c33,775$22,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,158.715150.3%76 W · 75 L+0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No37c21,329$7,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,944.123237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-41.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked No2c20,125$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.14922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-69.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c77…4d42backed Yes80c20,081$15,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,100.82966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes46c19,930$9,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,807.2334333.5%115 W · 228 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-30%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked No31c18,195$5,598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,597.592532%8 W · 17 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No33c17,555$5,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,858.76378.1%3 W · 34 L-5.0wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-86.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2a3b…dc5ebacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No47c13,511$6,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,410.683743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-32.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No11c13,003$1,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,473.213548.6%17 W · 18 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8b9…b836backed Yes50c12,956$6,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,532.987749.4%38 W · 39 L+9.3wins+0.12per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8604…fd3abacked Yes63c12,525$7,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,610.72850%4 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-24.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38e5…95e7backed Yes21c12,373$2,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,736.2321033.3%70 W · 140 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-20.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No47c11,918$5,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,586.349035.6%32 W · 58 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-42.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes6c10,689$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,068.843920.5%8 W · 31 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e25…9712backed No19c9,055$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc1…8db4backed Yes39c8,468$3,329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,138.492646.2%12 W · 14 L+3.0wins+0.11per pick35cpaid+11.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No1c8,400$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.95260%0 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked No79c7,339$5,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,793.071450%7 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick55cpaid+95.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5207…686bbacked Yes9c7,256$675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,580.751172.7%8 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.28per pick45cpaid+219.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xaf1f…5c1abacked Yes63c7,116$4,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,602.35250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-21.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes4c7,090$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,777.784835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+42.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc002…6f57backed No1c6,400$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No21c6,367$1,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.5713625.7%35 W · 101 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7804…7025backed Yes38c5,990$2,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,737.192420.8%5 W · 19 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No28c5,915$1,628 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,628.4510947.7%52 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8200…df37backed Yes38c5,576$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,476.161346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b8…6b6abacked Yes78c5,285$4,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.611764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+73.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e6b…13f2backed No1c5,200$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a4e…1ba4backed Yes75c5,046$3,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,246.13100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6404…f250backed No65c5,000$3,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,2501040%4 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda68…6b7bbacked No0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7726…4aeebacked Yes53c4,995$2,653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,342.481070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+68.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf83e…4663backed No51c4,453$2,270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,269.774346.5%20 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No3c4,400$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-59.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed No77c3,838$2,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,945.71566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No49c3,788$1,865 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,865.3113143.5%57 W · 74 L+0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No32c3,722$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.18332.5%27 W · 56 L-3.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-36.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x671a…2f1ebacked No36c3,705$1,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,334.51957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes80c3,700$2,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.791735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-42.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6f…25f0backed No63c3,683$2,334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,333.822147.6%10 W · 11 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No36c3,680$1,328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,327.5417140.4%69 W · 102 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-28.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No50c3,478$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.3118237.4%68 W · 114 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2ac…7f76backed Yes63c3,244$2,042 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.28666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+34.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x94ce…a9fabacked Yes40c3,238$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,958.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+153.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No58c3,009$1,755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,755.3810340.8%42 W · 61 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e72…ffb9backed No45c2,725$1,228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,228.384942.9%21 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No46c2,683$1,238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.334032.5%13 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf05e…209cbacked Yes75c2,673$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.19757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+11.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes33c2,620$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.431250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd426…334abacked No34c2,550$855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.753426.5%9 W · 25 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+36.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No53c2,544$1,342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,342.164940.8%20 W · 29 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819f…f3e7backed Yes7c2,517$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,329.562536%9 W · 16 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick22cpaid+99.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed No4c2,456$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.93714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-53.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d93…fdefbacked No36c2,311$828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$828.38520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-72.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed No68c2,256$1,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,525.634847.9%23 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee8a…4fb2backed Yes74c2,209$1,645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.53475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xeaf1…3fbfbacked Yes46c2,200$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,182.68540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-28%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked No66c2,154$1,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,424.786036.7%22 W · 38 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes70c2,049$1,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.0321161.1%129 W · 82 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed No66c2,038$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.895137.3%19 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-38.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No40c2,011$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.144949%24 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes75c2,010$1,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.51850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes9c2,000$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.792733.3%9 W · 18 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+35.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed No56c1,987$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.625135.3%18 W · 33 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked No80c1,982$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,579.744841.7%20 W · 28 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No39c1,931$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.864126.8%11 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick38cpaid-52.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked No72c1,859$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.643452.9%18 W · 16 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+43.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed No60c1,782$1,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,060.675139.2%20 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed No50c1,773$895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$895.284940.8%20 W · 29 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-20.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes24c1,739$414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,324.552240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x194a…0f76backed Yes4c1,658$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,597.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+2.8wins+0.47per pick20cpaid+554%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7711…d3d2backed No9c1,654$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34a9…4cfdbacked Yes49c1,635$794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.2922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick43cpaid-60.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked No10c1,632$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.91128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-87.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x04ec…580fbacked Yes65c1,618$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$570.882263.6%14 W · 8 L+3.2wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xff75…0effbacked Yes66c1,403$922 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe234…304abacked Yes57c1,356$768 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$587.61136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-42.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes6c1,347$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.578535.3%30 W · 55 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+26.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4c4…e42dbacked No8c1,309$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.94757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5082…049dbacked Yes39c1,300$509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$791.37475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.34per pick41cpaid+63.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No57c1,264$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.948149.4%40 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No46c1,238$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.9414729.9%44 W · 103 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ee2…062ebacked No57c1,219$698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50a6…9e52backed No11c1,184$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.2420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79fd…78cebacked Yes35c1,170$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765.79250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+44.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a2a…8371backed Yes42c1,160$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.67250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No12c1,100$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.32740.7%11 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-18.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x054d…97c5backed Yes52c1,062$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$510.421546.7%7 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6978…08d8backed No46c1,055$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.63333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70ca…2443backed Yes29c1,048$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9352…2227backed No37c1,023$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.41425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-64.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbbd2…9b1abacked No11c1,000$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-29.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed No35c941.65$327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$326.53633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-17.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.