Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9775b8f1a7d5219a86947c83eb5b3ec1e3dfe0fd81e03827d3d07dbc4fddc2a8

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $368,832
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $159,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $368,832 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x21ee…be98backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	15,081$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.5	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	3c	14,954$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433.95	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	12,880$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.3	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	4c	10,644$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.61	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2855…ec97backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	0%0 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	8,452$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.66	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf71c…4dabbacked Yes	1c	7,548$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	115	7.8%9 W · 106 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	6,324$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.01	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes	1c	5,600$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.02	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+354.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	2c	5,151$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.5	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f28…7d8ebacked Yes	2c	4,515$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.81	64	21.9%14 W · 50 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	1c	4,400$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.43	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	1c	4,022$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.75	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	2c	3,682$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.07	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes	1c	3,476$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.02	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	0c	3,200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	3,171$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.51	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04ba…59aebacked Yes	1c	3,084$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	3,070$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.68	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	2c	2,993$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.45	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00f7…500bbacked Yes	1c	2,980$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4377…1764backed Yes	4c	2,753$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-46.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	4c	2,704$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.37	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	2,633$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.03	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	1c	2,557$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.25	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	2,155$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.32	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	2,087$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.18	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	1c	2,017$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.72	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes	4c	1,930$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.97	110	11.8%13 W · 97 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb98d…5a68backed Yes	2c	1,920$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	1,916$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.95	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	3c	1,879$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,810$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.67	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,768$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.78	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	1,758$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.93	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	1c	1,746$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.49	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	1,634$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.2	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	5c	1,629$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.52	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes	1c	1,400$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.45	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	6c	1,350$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.11	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	1c	1,326$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e10…a68abacked Yes	2c	1,289$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes	1c	1,264$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.59	75	40%30 W · 45 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	1,228$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.59	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	1,191$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.23	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbe46…8b21backed Yes	4c	1,188$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.07	218	16.1%35 W · 183 L	+6.1wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes	3c	1,176$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.23	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1c9…fadabacked Yes	7c	1,146$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.5	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	1,131$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.77	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	5c	1,089$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.13	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes	2c	1,074$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	114	21.1%24 W · 90 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	5c	1,064$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6e…fa58backed Yes	10c	1,047$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.11	66	30.3%20 W · 46 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	2c	1,032$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.7	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22b8…4132backed Yes	7c	1,012$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.83	48	12.5%6 W · 42 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	1c	1,009$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	1,000$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.85	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6b…13f2backed Yes	1c	931.56$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5bd…94ddbacked Yes	1c	854.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01f4…443cbacked Yes	4c	771.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.79	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	13cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c5…2cb2backed Yes	3c	700.94$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.67	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3176…3990backed Yes	2c	700$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.12	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.10per pick	8cpaid	+66.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	696.37$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.77	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	3c	603.06$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	2c	600$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04fa…1ff3backed Yes	2c	571.62$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	52	21.2%11 W · 41 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	18cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c33…9ac6backed Yes	3c	517.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	25	24%6 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf60…c978backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	92	13%12 W · 80 L	+2.1wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	483.23$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.28	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	3c	421.56$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	4c	400$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.6	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	3c	400$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.78	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	8c	399.99$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.05	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd61a…c7f1backed Yes	4c	359.81$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.14	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+67.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	6c	346.2$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.34	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2275…c88bbacked Yes	5c	345.56$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.39	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x886c…6af3backed Yes	6c	338.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	29	31%9 W · 20 L	+1.7wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+17%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d05…1742backed Yes	5c	277.91$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	16cpaid	-50.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf9ac…806ebacked Yes	7c	200$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	129	32.6%42 W · 87 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53fb…e92abacked Yes	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	107	33.6%36 W · 71 L	+7.0wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event