Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6358e37929cc6ee1ef49e5799de19abaef12449c1b8a395cee5108f7b6007e64

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $183,732
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $56,897

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $183,732 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	27,000$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.64	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf48…136dbacked Yes	1c	9,066$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.59	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	8,106$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.23	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	6,760$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.18	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	2c	5,915$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.39	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	2c	5,025$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.24	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	1c	4,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	3,101$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.58	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	2,700$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	0c	2,681$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	3c	2,562$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.72	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	2,407$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.06	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	10c	1,366$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.91	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	1c	1,300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.83	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,169$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.53	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8a6…87bebacked Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	8c	944$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.57	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	925.51$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.21	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	5c	899.98$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfcf4…0af7backed Yes	5c	800$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x55e8…c488backed Yes	12c	773.13$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.38	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	729.96$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.35	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	722.87$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.42	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	8c	713.65$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.09	139	11.5%16 W · 123 L	-3.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	650$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	3c	627.59$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.46	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	2c	604$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.22	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd553…f8bbbacked Yes	13c	597.62$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.41	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+163.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	510.11$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.87	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	504$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.62	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes	12c	500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	212	33%70 W · 142 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	11c	500$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…486cbacked Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	12c	463.58$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.59	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	7c	440$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ccd…5330backed Yes	11c	400$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	190	20.5%39 W · 151 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8268…6146backed Yes	11c	400$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+318.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	9c	400$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	5c	371.92$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.27	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x19a0…d78bbacked Yes	10c	342$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.12	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	4c	303.24$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c9…fadabacked Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	285$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.35	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d6e…a1ebbacked Yes	13c	284.62$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x582c…eb16backed Yes	12c	228.85$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.46	116	13.8%16 W · 100 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04f6…311abacked Yes	12c	208.33$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	16	25%4 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e43…b356backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	178	18.5%33 W · 145 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	11c	200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x271f…b8ebbacked Yes	13c	194.47$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.48	45	22.2%10 W · 35 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-18%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	10c	139.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.09	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ce3…1f93backed Yes	12c	131.04$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.72	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event