Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c8c72b4826b791f60db971808bc62075cdc6356bbe6007ef59aff5439198222

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 2, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $217,411
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $75,728

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $217,411 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	26,801$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.81	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	0c	6,655$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.97	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	6,145$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.82	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	5,368$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.1	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf48…136dbacked Yes	2c	5,235$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.09	53	26.4%14 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-50.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fda…6c62backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	3c	5,000$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	2c	4,000$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	1c	3,879$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.11	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	3c	3,838$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.9	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	3,351$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.16	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	3,300$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.6	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	3c	3,203$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.42	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	2,583$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	4c	2,100$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.6	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe096…be8ebacked Yes	2c	2,000$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	232	12.1%28 W · 204 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes	1c	1,954$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.91	167	16.2%27 W · 140 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	2c	1,702$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.54	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	1c	1,657$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	3c	1,500$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.25	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	2c	1,300$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.85	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd49b…d653backed Yes	2c	1,236$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-79.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Yes	4c	1,100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	1,079$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.71	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	4c	1,030$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.48	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	12c	1,007$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.43	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8a6…87bebacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	37	5.4%2 W · 35 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2559…460bbacked Yes	2c	954$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.03	264	18.6%49 W · 215 L	+8.7wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	5c	923.55$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.45	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	13c	920.88$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.27	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0739…aba8backed Yes	1c	906.46$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.46	75	40%30 W · 45 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	3c	898.68$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.63	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	895.19$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.76	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe488…f2c0backed Yes	13c	798.41$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55e8…c488backed Yes	13c	784.1$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.93	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x582c…eb16backed Yes	5c	776.32$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.5	116	13.8%16 W · 100 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	14c	700$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes	6c	640$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	3c	637.63$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.13	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2275…c88bbacked Yes	2c	604.54$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.09	23	13%3 W · 20 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-68.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	2c	600.37$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.1	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	2c	600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	11c	576.73$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.91	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfcf4…0af7backed Yes	7c	572$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.04	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	4c	533.69$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.13	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ed8…2e77backed Yes	10c	519.1$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	2c	518.18$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	509.01$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.77	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x92a0…5fdcbacked Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.88	212	33%70 W · 142 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b20…486cbacked Yes	13c	500$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.65	42	9.5%4 W · 38 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes	3c	498.06$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	96	14.6%14 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	8c	401.24$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.87	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	13c	341.36$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.54	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19a0…d78bbacked Yes	11c	337$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.83	46	23.9%11 W · 35 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c9…fadabacked Yes	12c	301.9$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.23	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	25cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81d5…46f4backed Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	14cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	11c	299.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e52…91d6backed Yes	10c	299.01$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.11	186	8.6%16 W · 170 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	5c	298.08$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.69	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	8c	286.01$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.88	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d6e…a1ebbacked Yes	13c	283.32$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	34	29.4%10 W · 24 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f05…ba7bbacked Yes	11c	272.73$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	26	42.3%11 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	47cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	13c	250$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc1c…a37fbacked Yes	9c	239.57$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.07	119	31.1%37 W · 82 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3ce3…1f93backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	+3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd553…f8bbbacked Yes	13c	192.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+163.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04f6…311abacked Yes	13c	185.94$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	16	25%4 W · 12 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	14c	158$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.12	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	7c	156.4$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.59	276	47.8%132 W · 144 L	+10.1wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb38d…1796backed Yes	10c	130.92$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.84	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0898…9a5bbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	98	15.3%15 W · 83 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-29%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	14c	95.36$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x366c…ec01backed Yes	12c	92$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+107.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa769…8a2abacked Yes	13c	86.01$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x29bc…e100backed Yes	14c	79.12$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	70	32.9%23 W · 47 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	31cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event