TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: INOX Division vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #5 Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
INOX Divisionof INOX Division, ex-RUSTEC
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,857
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,857 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 113 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6b97…8d30backed INOX Division61c5,348$3,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,077.1666851.8%346 W · 322 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x16bc…decabacked ex-RUSTEC68c2,920$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00019229.2%56 W · 136 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-28.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd3f1…7535backed ex-RUSTEC39c2,897$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.1913342.1%56 W · 77 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed ex-RUSTEC28c1,770$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.92,62630.9%812 W · 1,814 L-105.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-29.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xca96…7125backed INOX Division46c1,721$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$930.67887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.28per pick59cpaid+38.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed INOX Division77c1,698$1,310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.291,61846.8%758 W · 860 L-28.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked ex-RUSTEC35c1,688$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$597.283,45929.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L-279.9wins-0.08per pick37cpaid-43.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-RUSTEC62c1,558$960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$960.297,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67ce…100fbacked INOX Division67c1,493$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.289753.6%52 W · 45 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b59…3aa6backed INOX Division64c1,212$776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.2584958.3%495 W · 354 L+60.4wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x060d…d746backed INOX Division60c1,175$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.435354.7%29 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7069…325bbacked INOX Division41c1,044$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.0994645.8%433 W · 513 L+18.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3881…804ebacked ex-RUSTEC38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801,49651.5%771 W · 725 L-7.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbfbe…dc24backed ex-RUSTEC39c899.75$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.63540%14 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd385…34fbbacked ex-RUSTEC36c697.5$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.113852.9%73 W · 65 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked ex-RUSTEC24c683.9$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1659445.7%43 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked INOX Division56c681.09$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.962,22141.3%917 W · 1,304 L-22.6wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-19.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c18…2f76backed ex-RUSTEC24c664.71$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3788330.7%271 W · 612 L-63.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-35.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7787…bf58backed ex-RUSTEC60c642.77$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3863542.9%15 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked INOX Division31c616.93$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.0321737.3%81 W · 136 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x52e5…60babacked INOX Division62c564.52$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.526965.2%45 W · 24 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5672…7312backed INOX Division29c523.42$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.9162248.2%300 W · 322 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a3…5857backed ex-RUSTEC47c519.02$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.3219447.4%92 W · 102 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1d5…54d5backed INOX Division49c505$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.641050.7%208 W · 202 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe54d…fdecbacked INOX Division46c502.07$231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.2411758.1%68 W · 49 L-11.0wins-0.09per pick68cpaid-17.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5879…b671backed INOX Division37c500$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3152653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-13.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed ex-RUSTEC38c499.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19037848.1%182 W · 196 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed ex-RUSTEC56c499.54$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.522,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed ex-RUSTEC39c464.28$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.185,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked ex-RUSTEC38c431.42$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.775833.4%253 W · 505 L-48.9wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-31%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc910…8bbcbacked ex-RUSTEC56c431.22$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2406744.8%30 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a5…e95dbacked INOX Division25c400.28$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.2858149.2%286 W · 295 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed ex-RUSTEC63c394.28$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.9289046.1%410 W · 480 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x94d2…cfbdbacked INOX Division41c384.48$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.032,11047.2%995 W · 1,115 L-62.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4994…3e36backed INOX Division19c345.37$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.753823.7%9 W · 29 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x949e…20afbacked INOX Division33c333$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.1143237.7%163 W · 269 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4cf…2224backed INOX Division62c322.58$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.5822567.1%151 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked INOX Division23c314$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.221,59146.6%741 W · 850 L+30.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x37c1…8de1backed INOX Division54c312.33$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.671,31944.2%583 W · 736 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…e006backed INOX Division26c300$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.2539440.4%159 W · 235 L+30.0wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+20.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked ex-RUSTEC36c253$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.0849536.4%180 W · 315 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf3b…0375backed ex-RUSTEC36c250$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9039245.9%180 W · 212 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88f3…9215backed INOX Division59c249.99$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed INOX Division59c238.09$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.626,48042.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L-79.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-21.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8afa…28f0backed INOX Division42c235$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.373948.4%358 W · 381 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd84d…cc32backed INOX Division27c234.23$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.9633048.8%161 W · 169 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x805d…0c26backed INOX Division61c228.74$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.27366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5929…4684backed INOX Division54c226.34$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.214,06450.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L+69.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2405…e055backed ex-RUSTEC38c222.58$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5815948.4%77 W · 82 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec69…6fbabacked INOX Division14c220$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.266446.4%308 W · 356 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf908…0aafbacked ex-RUSTEC38c210.53$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8013332.3%43 W · 90 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa72a…5685backed ex-RUSTEC46c207.27$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.831241.3%129 W · 183 L-14.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8eca…c19cbacked INOX Division42c198.12$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.25757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed ex-RUSTEC35c187.97$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.571,57929.7%469 W · 1,110 L-86.9wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked ex-RUSTEC38c182.75$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3744747.2%211 W · 236 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked INOX Division51c180.49$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.994,93337.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L-249.2wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-32.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x15e6…bb76backed ex-RUSTEC35c176.79$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.884837.5%18 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked INOX Division47c173.54$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.544,69143.6%2,043 W · 2,648 L-83.2wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde57…666fbacked ex-RUSTEC37c165.9$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.385133.3%17 W · 34 L-5.5wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xde24…2b2fbacked INOX Division56c150.58$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.267537.3%28 W · 47 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x294b…22d2backed INOX Division67c150$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5039955.4%221 W · 178 L+18.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa5a8…bf60backed INOX Division35c142.41$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.4198856.1%554 W · 434 L+21.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8845…360ebacked ex-RUSTEC28c142$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.445538.2%21 W · 34 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ecb…7645backed ex-RUSTEC21c125$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.751,54733.9%524 W · 1,023 L-73.4wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b26…8c32backed INOX Division32c121.88$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8812750.4%64 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked ex-RUSTEC38c118.78$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1449149.9%245 W · 246 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa369…3ad6backed INOX Division56c113$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.0233146.5%154 W · 177 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf59e…f0bfbacked INOX Division62c110$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.915060.7%91 W · 59 L-0.5wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa8…efa7backed INOX Division38c105$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.14365.1%28 W · 15 L+5.2wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+35.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked ex-RUSTEC36c104.05$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.1520045%90 W · 110 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked ex-RUSTEC67c103.5$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.535,51147%2,590 W · 2,921 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed INOX Division56c100.18$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.082,62451.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L+18.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1f2…8c8dbacked INOX Division20c100$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8072353.5%387 W · 336 L+28.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x906f…2877backed INOX Division65c92.29$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.364854.3%352 W · 296 L+25.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf5c…98f9backed INOX Division59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.751258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed INOX Division31c79$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5120745.9%95 W · 112 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3016…9ffdbacked ex-RUSTEC21c78.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.746127.9%17 W · 44 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick20cpaid+4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c8c…2d81backed ex-RUSTEC34c71.11$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5145748.1%220 W · 237 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf186…03a9backed INOX Division35c67.78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7821850.9%111 W · 107 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb6fc…b24ebacked ex-RUSTEC61c65$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.6571951%367 W · 352 L+28.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fde…0258backed ex-RUSTEC39c61.48$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9879951.7%413 W · 386 L+25.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5fe0…cc67backed ex-RUSTEC62c61$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6120742.5%88 W · 119 L-17.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.7%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed INOX Division33c55.65$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.2849850.2%250 W · 248 L+6.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99fe…b61cbacked ex-RUSTEC36c53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0848242.1%203 W · 279 L-13.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07b1…b027backed INOX Division64c52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.7225643.4%111 W · 145 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed ex-RUSTEC63c51.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1741853.6%224 W · 194 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0e…4f01backed ex-RUSTEC34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1767750.2%340 W · 337 L+0.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bf1…294fbacked INOX Division39c50$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.513642.6%58 W · 78 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c55…84cebacked ex-RUSTEC34c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1733539.4%132 W · 203 L-19.1wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xde8c…9433backed ex-RUSTEC75c46$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51560%9 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed ex-RUSTEC66c44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1451446.9%241 W · 273 L-22.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked ex-RUSTEC38c40.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.382,47334.6%855 W · 1,618 L-188.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-37.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbe53…2dbabacked ex-RUSTEC67c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.861,27471.5%911 W · 363 L+3.3wins0.00per pick71cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked INOX Division64c40$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.441250.2%207 W · 205 L-8.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9454…9abcbacked INOX Division63c39.46$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4610254.9%56 W · 46 L-6.4wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-11.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed INOX Division63c37.78$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9869445%312 W · 382 L-24.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-18.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed INOX Division47c36.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.5322253.2%118 W · 104 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3c…f974backed INOX Division35c31.71$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.713100%3 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+139%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xad2c…4eecbacked INOX Division62c31.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9951252.1%267 W · 245 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffae…55c0backed ex-RUSTEC37c30$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.111632.8%38 W · 78 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.