Token Launches · resolved market
Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb33517bbc76928baa3aebb91cd8ff3163b34fedc6041ed0cf7eb4f6d146d203
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,580
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,921
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,580 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0fea…2462backed No | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec7…ceb3backed No | 0c | 7,772$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b03…a61dbacked No | 13c | 4,150$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.58 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 9c | 3,500$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 9c | 2,605$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.49 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 1c | 2,600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9f…047ebacked No | 2c | 2,347$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.28 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…a03bbacked No | 1c | 2,001$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…84e6backed No | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 72 | 40.3%29 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 9c | 1,709$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.43 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 6c | 1,570$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.79 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 19cpaid | -82.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed No | 14c | 1,396$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 5c | 1,338$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…f0d6backed No | 13c | 1,200$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…97f4backed No | 11c | 1,127$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.75 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | +11.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +54%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6b…13f2backed No | 1c | 1,033$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1dd…e4a3backed No | 5c | 1,002$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.26per pick | 21cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f78…2d21backed No | 2c | 1,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a5…d93bbacked No | 16c | 1,000$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.8 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +102.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd08…80acbacked No | 14c | 999.98$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 4c | 975.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…fd08backed No | 10c | 699.68$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x093f…07b4backed No | 9c | 649.98$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 23cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e6…3218backed No | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +268.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…6c43backed No | 10c | 500$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4753…968abacked No | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -80.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…d35fbacked No | 9c | 499.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a50…3e95backed Yes | 80c | 480$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75b3…d05ebacked No | 10c | 450$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.4wins | +0.29per pick | 24cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f9…efa4backed No | 17c | 443.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.45 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2b…1921backed No | 17c | 359.68$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.93 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +7.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 7c | 357.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775b…4533backed No | 11c | 343.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa0c…12b9backed No | 8c | 315.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 12c | 240.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 14c | 219$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9965…b6cbbacked No | 14c | 217.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked No | 16c | 215.94$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 196.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 15c | 190$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed No | 8c | 187.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.17per pick | 14cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 9c | 150$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35df…6da2backed No | 14c | 145.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…ebaebacked No | 10c | 119.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -63%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 12c | 118.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5746…ea1fbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2a…7c4fbacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 14c | 88.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 16c | 81.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.3 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2611…bc17backed No | 17c | 77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 37cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 14c | 72.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45c…9cf5backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22d8…b421backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…0c73backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Billions FDV above $50M one day after launch?this page
- Billions FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- Billions FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- Billions FDV above $500M one day after launch?No won
- Billions FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.