Earnings · resolved market
Will Tesla (TSLA) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb048382c65b727d8b1a51d588e6beb05e71ad2f23900a0aa5c3c6c5bac04ef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa21f…b08fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,450$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dc2…4837backed Yes | 75c | 1,386$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed No | 25c | 1,267$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 16cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe532…f9b9backed Yes | 70c | 550$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe827…5209backed Yes | 67c | 404.02$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.69 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd689…6ec7backed No | 24c | 373.62$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 62c | 362.64$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.78 | 64 | 100%64 W · 0 L | +25.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +91.3%equal weight | 82+0.29 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 76c | 286.85$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…9ddebacked No | 35c | 285.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.65per pick | 35cpaid | +185.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 75c | 284.15$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.4 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x07e0…1db9backed Yes | 70c | 249.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b16…961fbacked Yes | 75c | 249.99$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 15c | 225$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.3 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0deb…21e8backed Yes | 78c | 220.43$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 69c | 200$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 71c | 200$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 172 | 26.7%46 W · 126 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2a…de7dbacked No | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6b…13f2backed Yes | 77c | 150$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x411d…a0b1backed Yes | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed No | 9c | 142.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.33 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9e…ee7ebacked Yes | 73c | 140$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ff…b178backed No | 23c | 133.22$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52a7…afacbacked Yes | 78c | 128.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 21c | 126.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.33 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked No | 23c | 120.51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.17 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b79…6f9dbacked Yes | 80c | 119.92$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.44 | 262 | 50.4%132 W · 130 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae11…2d01backed Yes | 54c | 100.01$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…ae63backed Yes | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…a8a9backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.59 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab80…af18backed No | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbc…b8debacked No | 26c | 97.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +289.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 21c | 94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 142 | 33.8%48 W · 94 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc824…753ebacked Yes | 71c | 91.73$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x126e…c360backed No | 19c | 77.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.77 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba9e…66f5backed No | 26c | 77.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.74per pick | 26cpaid | +286.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x242d…5722backed Yes | 67c | 75.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d4…5204backed Yes | 76c | 66.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 71cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 72c | 53.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0745…4a1bbacked No | 29c | 51.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4f…81a1backed No | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.77per pick | 23cpaid | +334.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…4682backed No | 28c | 42.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4201…9eeabacked Yes | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed No | 29c | 38.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -10.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x517c…8678backed Yes | 79c | 32.73$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0999…78adbacked Yes | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc08…bd2ebacked Yes | 79c | 28.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7499…dfcdbacked Yes | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.77per pick | 77cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 48c | 21.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…7fdfbacked Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | -6.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e9…87febacked Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…d649backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad1f…4348backed Yes | 78c | 19.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 78cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2814…7ad5backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b79…63a5backed Yes | 66c | 17.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.