Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb86e5a041b217f70f748ccdd4c7b4ce3fcd0f5503c1df64a42198fc6f70ccf11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $164,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $101,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $164,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 0c | 62,961$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 138 | 15.9%22 W · 116 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 3c | 9,994$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$338.13 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…bab5backed Yes | 0c | 6,233$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 1c | 2,989$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 6c | 2,744$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.39 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…4edabacked Yes | 1c | 2,520$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.34 | 63 | 6.3%4 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e8…8354backed Yes | 1c | 2,360$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | +319.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 2,083$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.29 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 1,965$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,937$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked Yes | 1c | 1,172$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 139 | 11.5%16 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 4c | 1,158$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,128$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +137.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,111$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.11 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 1c | 1,017$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 559 | 8.2%46 W · 513 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,007$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41be…5f38backed Yes | 14c | 1,000$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe43d…3978backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes | 11c | 969.92$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 13c | 904.03$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.52 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 11c | 706.59$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.98 | 316 | 24.7%78 W · 238 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 101 | 5%5 W · 96 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8686…9ecbbacked Yes | 2c | 560$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 3c | 527.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…23cabacked Yes | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0124…473abacked Yes | 11c | 476.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 6c | 460$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…0296backed Yes | 8c | 421.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 193 | 14%27 W · 166 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 8c | 415$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 10c | 408.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fac…3e5abacked Yes | 3c | 401.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0f…8039backed Yes | 14c | 400$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa32d…df56backed Yes | 15c | 392.01$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 3c | 375.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb6d…2294backed Yes | 6c | 368.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 4c | 350.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x544e…86dcbacked Yes | 3c | 300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 6c | 265$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 105 | 14.3%15 W · 90 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 74 | 10.8%8 W · 66 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec4…7bacbacked Yes | 10c | 235.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…5bf3backed Yes | 15c | 223.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3db2…0f2ebacked Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 77 | 31.2%24 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…5704backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 184.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 12c | 135.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b5…e8a3backed Yes | 11c | 134.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 92 | 18.5%17 W · 75 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 13c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d16…58f5backed Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…133bbacked Yes | 9c | 119$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491e…3489backed Yes | 13c | 99.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 75 | 25.3%19 W · 56 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…06dabacked Yes | 11c | 98.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 12c | 97.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.