TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BoomBoysof BoomBoys, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$441,814
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$572,688

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $441,814 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 297 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons57c57,554$32,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,928.891,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed BoomBoys44c28,397$12,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,825.371143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Falcons34c21,497$7,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,271.7589741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Team Falcons53c17,950$9,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,491.8553451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Team Falcons55c16,352$8,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,993.3517546.9%82 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons43c13,113$5,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,591.891,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x66b1…6b9dbacked Team Falcons14c12,264$1,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,733.329339.8%37 W · 56 L-0.4wins0.00per pick40cpaid-19.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f04…1fb0backed BoomBoys50c11,319$5,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,662.3710458.7%61 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Team Falcons1c10,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x068c…bce7backed BoomBoys45c10,000$4,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5006241.9%26 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed BoomBoys42c8,645$3,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,014.1212159.5%72 W · 49 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed BoomBoys46c8,045$3,702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,343.3412348%59 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe45d…230dbacked BoomBoys47c7,691$3,621 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,069.992055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe760…f2f9backed Team Falcons53c6,749$3,610 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,609.966251.6%32 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0db4…89bfbacked Team Falcons16c6,059$946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$946.243732.4%12 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed BoomBoys47c5,373$2,518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,854.3753764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff80…9b4dbacked BoomBoys42c5,126$2,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,973.1417444.8%78 W · 96 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2383…072fbacked Team Falcons12c5,121$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$615.58333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Falcons56c5,000$2,794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,794.2469644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8d9…753abacked BoomBoys42c4,770$2,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,761.192766.7%18 W · 9 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+28.3%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed BoomBoys67c4,611$3,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,500.0322853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaf…d959backed BoomBoys44c4,432$1,944 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,488.56541.5%27 W · 38 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2931…7b81backed BoomBoys71c4,234$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,233.7418660.8%113 W · 73 L+12.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1dbf…1a6bbacked BoomBoys47c4,066$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,155.431040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked BoomBoys58c4,063$2,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,706.1135850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked BoomBoys44c3,669$1,611 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,057.9736547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Falcons2c3,596$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.9640014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked BoomBoys60c3,423$2,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.6219456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5b13…0263backed BoomBoys63c3,087$1,934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,152.75164.7%33 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick58cpaid-0.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed Team Falcons12c3,000$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.869122%20 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xafd4…7e61backed BoomBoys45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65027153.5%145 W · 126 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed BoomBoys45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,649.9829348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked Team Falcons21c2,900$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59849644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Team Falcons35c2,896$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.6625446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Falcons35c2,832$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00033850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe92…4215backed Team Falcons18c2,790$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.951926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed BoomBoys43c2,668$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.9241351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba03…0486backed Team Falcons46c2,600$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,190.427234.7%25 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Team Falcons39c2,571$994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$993.9588539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…2ad3backed Team Falcons60c2,500$1,510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,510.284868.8%33 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fbe…7d07backed BoomBoys44c2,298$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,285.9425444.5%113 W · 141 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7744…d8d6backed Team Falcons4c2,290$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.74422.7%10 W · 34 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick18cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60dd…40e5backed Team Falcons32c2,204$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.4833453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85e9…2eeabacked BoomBoys54c2,065$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.056767.2%45 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed BoomBoys41c2,052$849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,202.4234442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed BoomBoys65c2,000$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70053758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed BoomBoys65c1,963$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.2247748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed BoomBoys44c1,893$833 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06018830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c7b…6e9dbacked BoomBoys57c1,715$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.5725246.8%118 W · 134 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb18c…694fbacked BoomBoys47c1,711$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$902.994057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc36a…ad01backed Team Falcons56c1,604$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.71050%5 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Team Falcons55c1,600$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88057449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd3b3…70adbacked Team Falcons10c1,567$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick37cpaid+34.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8495…550ebacked BoomBoys75c1,566$1,169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.079052.2%47 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf52…efdfbacked BoomBoys69c1,554$1,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.2721558.6%126 W · 89 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ba6…5e3fbacked BoomBoys49c1,500$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$765944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick61cpaid-22%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf32d…bbbbbacked BoomBoys67c1,481$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.661057.9%353 W · 257 L+2.8wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Team Falcons23c1,450$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.731,45848.5%707 W · 751 L+27.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-14.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Team Falcons16c1,441$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.5541242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed BoomBoys44c1,432$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.591,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked BoomBoys69c1,425$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.6116547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked BoomBoys45c1,407$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$776.2831936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed BoomBoys69c1,346$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.5465625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked BoomBoys46c1,294$595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69931055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Team Falcons49c1,224$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006352.4%33 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x02fe…c5a5backed BoomBoys42c1,205$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.988740.2%35 W · 52 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed BoomBoys41c1,200$492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70843738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Team Falcons55c1,200$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66065441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5997…0beebacked BoomBoys45c1,191$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655.053839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd99b…50bebacked BoomBoys45c1,170$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.57142.3%30 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ea…36cdbacked Team Falcons57c1,170$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.893250%16 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51be…12c2backed Team Falcons19c1,168$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22219251%98 W · 94 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Falcons36c1,162$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.2668649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Team Falcons34c1,161$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.3337745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53b2…9f96backed BoomBoys55c1,154$635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.28658.1%50 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3452…1ba0backed Team Falcons58c1,150$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.518351.9%95 W · 88 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Falcons60c1,100$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66061745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05d1…2bb3backed Team Falcons48c1,099$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$522.1917248.3%83 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf743…1811backed Team Falcons37c1,011$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.8531835.8%114 W · 204 L-18.4wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-28.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x363c…9b0ebacked BoomBoys46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54012148.8%59 W · 62 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb4c…6d64backed Team Falcons13c1,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1305147.1%24 W · 27 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed BoomBoys44c1,000$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56034860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Falcons55c999.99$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9939660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f93…a687backed Team Falcons55c999.99$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.993369.7%23 W · 10 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+25.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team Falcons54c999.96$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.9858744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Team Falcons4c990.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.937018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Team Falcons54c974.99$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.4956542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9f4…c1e4backed Team Falcons56c964.86$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.7242639.4%168 W · 258 L-39.9wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-31.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Falcons27c919.65$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.389749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f1…8680backed BoomBoys65c900$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31228044.3%124 W · 156 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Falcons56c896.82$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.2843067%288 W · 142 L+31.9wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf6ef…e2d1backed BoomBoys45c829$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.952842.9%12 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked BoomBoys52c800$416 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38413258.3%77 W · 55 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b89…1069backed Team Falcons53c792.98$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.2815653.8%84 W · 72 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35f1…e67bbacked Team Falcons18c777.78$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403167.7%21 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.15per pick53cpaid+12.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed BoomBoys44c773.8$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.3325248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7032…0a8bbacked BoomBoys56c763.13$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.1355251.6%285 W · 267 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…9bb3backed BoomBoys46c760$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$410.44654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb57c…7b15backed Team Falcons3c666.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x818b…c5ebbacked Team Falcons16c627.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.