TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Iron Wing, Team Yandex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$653,390
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$873,431

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $653,390 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 358 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcd30…f316backed Iron Wing55c115,384$64,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,004.9612159.5%72 W · 49 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Iron Wing57c68,453$39,254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,25471143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53fb…7c30backed Team Yandex44c46,696$20,546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,149.512138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Yandex28c38,040$10,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,444.7789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9166…b479backed Team Yandex46c19,970$9,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,783.6912348%59 W · 64 L-4.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Yandex47c17,752$8,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,469.9442650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Yandex38c17,590$6,761 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,828.981,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Iron Wing49c16,851$8,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,2001,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa103…1c14backed Team Yandex43c14,000$6,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,979.997548%36 W · 39 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x258c…7c23backed Team Yandex45c12,500$5,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,8753943.6%17 W · 22 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Team Yandex49c11,499$5,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,906.8825446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed Team Yandex68c7,399$5,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,331.9718950.8%96 W · 93 L+10.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Yandex69c7,218$4,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,244.1947650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Iron Wing54c7,000$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,78030452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Iron Wing51c6,916$3,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,531.589749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7045…81b5backed Team Yandex58c6,773$3,896 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,876.585369.8%37 W · 16 L+9.1wins+0.17per pick53cpaid+21.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x76fc…d3adbacked Team Yandex55c6,453$3,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,934.552142.9%9 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcbba…dbffbacked Iron Wing34c6,436$2,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,210.283040%12 W · 18 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Iron Wing50c6,075$3,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,040.739736.1%35 W · 62 L-6.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Team Yandex58c5,189$3,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.1253764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53b2…9f96backed Team Yandex50c4,807$2,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,410.748658.1%50 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf148…0b4fbacked Team Yandex51c4,703$2,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,307.6516641%68 W · 98 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x12ec…41aebacked Team Yandex46c4,625$2,127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,497.436043.3%26 W · 34 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Iron Wing52c4,246$2,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,195.3929348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed Iron Wing21c3,906$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833.99122%20 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Team Yandex78c3,767$2,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$824.0418844.7%84 W · 104 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Iron Wing63c3,569$2,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,266.2296645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Iron Wing50c3,417$1,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,706.7556955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Iron Wing50c3,410$1,702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,701.7268649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Yandex49c3,111$1,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.1133850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Team Yandex39c2,995$1,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,827.4157449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Iron Wing57c2,965$1,678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,678.3250353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7876…a162backed Iron Wing46c2,900$1,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3252250%11 W · 11 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf796…de54backed Team Yandex40c2,896$1,158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,737.396651.5%34 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bc1…c168backed Team Yandex44c2,850$1,254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5962429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-43.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2931…7b81backed Team Yandex70c2,850$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$849.918660.8%113 W · 73 L+12.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Iron Wing46c2,826$1,306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,305.5335850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Team Yandex52c2,780$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,331.0950850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d8a…f907backed Team Yandex44c2,775$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,55414136.9%52 W · 89 L-13.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8adb…e4f6backed Team Yandex40c2,500$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5009556.8%54 W · 41 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked Team Yandex48c2,500$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30019456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x21c7…42e7backed Team Yandex72c2,472$1,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.0810256.9%58 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe46d…7e4dbacked Iron Wing39c2,453$956 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$955.77055.7%39 W · 31 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fd7…fbc9backed Team Yandex41c2,421$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,420.992955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Iron Wing2c2,400$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.56132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1488…ec88backed Iron Wing43c2,400$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.691136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-19.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e9…eedebacked Team Yandex41c2,323$958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,365.1910045%45 W · 55 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Team Yandex60c2,247$1,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$903.7550832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Iron Wing54c2,238$1,209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,208.6941351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Team Yandex78c2,209$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.6936547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8495…550ebacked Team Yandex47c2,177$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,148.429052.2%47 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Yandex52c2,159$1,123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,036.536041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f04…1fb0backed Iron Wing14c2,135$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.7310458.7%61 W · 43 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+4.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed Team Yandex56c2,120$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.865149%25 W · 26 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Yandex49c2,020$985 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,035.6969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4aec…4ce9backed Iron Wing20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40030667.3%206 W · 100 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+4.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8dc5…c07dbacked Team Yandex43c1,971$848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.5812263.1%77 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0af2…a2bbbacked Team Yandex52c1,890$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$907.25745.6%26 W · 31 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-7.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Team Yandex57c1,839$1,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$794.0550769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6b60…edbebacked Iron Wing45c1,802$812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$811.664837.5%18 W · 30 L-7.9wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-31.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Iron Wing52c1,732$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$908.9977256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Team Yandex61c1,632$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.5835758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed Iron Wing46c1,510$695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$694.765236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xba03…0486backed Iron Wing23c1,500$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.037234.7%25 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Yandex44c1,500$660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84069835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Iron Wing44c1,500$660 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66018830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x628f…b212backed Team Yandex60c1,500$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6002958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+2,654.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed Iron Wing70c1,497$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,045.9617249.4%85 W · 87 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Team Yandex62c1,487$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$560.4435960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bea…5d50backed Iron Wing33c1,486$486 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$485.5447748.6%232 W · 245 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Iron Wing58c1,454$843 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.1137745.9%173 W · 204 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72f0…6be8backed Iron Wing46c1,450$667 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$667.211957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+32.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7bcc…b4fabacked Iron Wing31c1,436$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44416959.2%100 W · 69 L+14.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+11.6%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfe92…4215backed Iron Wing21c1,321$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.191926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-35.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04f6…f24abacked Iron Wing25c1,302$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.6250347.1%237 W · 266 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Iron Wing31c1,300$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40680443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc4fe…601fbacked Iron Wing34c1,264$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.4189238.1%340 W · 552 L-42.7wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3a48…e3a8backed Team Yandex46c1,262$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.9825266.3%167 W · 85 L+20.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+15.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Team Yandex51c1,241$633 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.0935737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7eb…eef7backed Iron Wing59c1,219$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$714.163943.6%17 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Team Yandex60c1,208$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.3348054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Iron Wing60c1,205$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.750749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b5…941abacked Team Yandex54c1,112$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512.313447.1%16 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb6b8…149bbacked Team Yandex44c1,088$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.2710245.1%46 W · 56 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Team Yandex74c1,086$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.3512060.8%73 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x865c…4079backed Team Yandex50c1,060$534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.3850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+89.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49ea…36cdbacked Team Yandex53c1,050$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.53250%16 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Yandex54c1,029$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.2661745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Iron Wing56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Iron Wing50c999.99$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50043738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Team Yandex69c999.99$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31053758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x958c…a328backed Team Yandex45c965.33$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$530.9828347%133 W · 150 L+10.9wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93c9…b32cbacked Iron Wing42c963.68$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-67.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f0b…8e1dbacked Iron Wing48c958.32$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.18580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick48cpaid+67.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Iron Wing54c956$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.2425248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Team Yandex48c936.9$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.1932548.9%159 W · 166 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe584…9bb3backed Iron Wing54c932.29$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.444654.3%25 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb8f…4a0bbacked Team Yandex44c925$407 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5185444.4%24 W · 30 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb69…cfd1backed Team Yandex67c895.52$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.5230356.4%171 W · 132 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d1…2bb3backed Iron Wing49c876.99$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.1617248.3%83 W · 89 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.