TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Iron Wingof Iron Wing, Team Yandex
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$461,301
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$561,955

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $461,301 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 340 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Iron Wing47c65,726$31,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,726.231,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ae…9a4abacked Team Yandex53c38,177$20,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,163.2323435.9%84 W · 150 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Iron Wing48c25,127$11,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,178.4789741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a81…0e8fbacked Iron Wing50c20,658$10,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,267.854148.8%20 W · 21 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Team Yandex48c19,704$9,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,388.3171143%306 W · 405 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Yandex53c14,317$7,616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,616.0969644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Iron Wing47c12,705$5,943 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,761.641,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Team Yandex40c11,448$4,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,585.7250832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex54c10,078$5,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,400.841,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Yandex52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,20036041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6304…e570backed Team Yandex49c9,963$4,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,881.6627645.3%125 W · 151 L-8.2wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x068c…bce7backed Team Yandex52c9,938$5,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,118.316241.9%26 W · 36 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Team Yandex28c8,808$2,473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,473.2189749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Team Yandex30c8,291$2,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,461.8768649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57b4…b46bbacked Team Yandex53c7,640$4,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,072.7324246.7%113 W · 129 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1de…21f5backed Iron Wing55c7,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,149.9930452.3%159 W · 145 L+20.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x88c3…bea3backed Iron Wing49c6,538$3,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,336.025459.3%32 W · 22 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6373…a0b7backed Team Yandex12c6,350$753 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753.1914825%37 W · 111 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Iron Wing51c6,000$3,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,94036343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedfc…b7b1backed Team Yandex44c5,625$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5008348.2%40 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Yandex53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9c…e006backed Iron Wing63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,85022663.3%143 W · 83 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick62cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Team Yandex40c4,820$1,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,934.8893546.4%434 W · 501 L-15.7wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a56…10f5backed Iron Wing64c4,802$3,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,742.6418950.8%96 W · 93 L+10.9wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd99b…50bebacked Team Yandex46c4,754$2,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.687142.3%30 W · 41 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8495…550ebacked Team Yandex49c4,268$2,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,087.599052.2%47 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3308…f04bbacked Iron Wing60c4,237$2,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,674.3435850.6%181 W · 177 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Iron Wing69c3,900$2,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,192.6379859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Team Yandex52c3,798$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,97541351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5997…0beebacked Team Yandex47c3,585$1,692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,692.453839.5%15 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Team Yandex52c3,500$1,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,82029348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Yandex40c3,373$1,351 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,351.4296645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Team Yandex51c3,349$1,708 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,707.9956955.5%316 W · 253 L+22.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1568…2a89backed Team Yandex13c3,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.559122%20 W · 71 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x86c8…c867backed Team Yandex20c3,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6003850%19 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x53fb…7c30backed Team Yandex53c2,855$1,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,513.142138.1%8 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-29.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2931…7b81backed Iron Wing72c2,785$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.1718660.8%113 W · 73 L+12.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86b1…c094backed Team Yandex4c2,700$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10265625.6%168 W · 488 L+14.7wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf796…de54backed Team Yandex50c2,657$1,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,322.026651.5%34 W · 32 L-3.7wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbd9…de31backed Iron Wing77c2,600$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$600.2714258.5%83 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5952…8a5ebacked Iron Wing45c2,530$1,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,391.59643.8%42 W · 54 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Team Yandex48c2,343$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.833850.9%172 W · 166 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe46d…7e4dbacked Iron Wing47c2,333$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,236.497055.7%39 W · 31 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0db4…89bfbacked Team Yandex9c2,331$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023732.4%12 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf3a…fbfdbacked Iron Wing55c2,323$1,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.9250850.8%258 W · 250 L+8.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Yandex17c2,295$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.2247650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Team Yandex36c2,259$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.5450353.9%271 W · 232 L+26.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcd30…f316backed Team Yandex51c2,142$1,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.2612159.5%72 W · 49 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xef26…05babacked Team Yandex9c2,139$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.4925446.1%117 W · 137 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+2.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc800…4117backed Team Yandex32c2,136$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.139042.2%38 W · 52 L-5.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x82d2…beeabacked Iron Wing50c2,002$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$994.9616746.1%77 W · 90 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba03…0486backed Team Yandex54c2,000$1,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,079.987234.7%25 W · 47 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc156…f76cbacked Iron Wing65c1,920$1,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.2416547.9%79 W · 86 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bc1…c168backed Iron Wing45c1,900$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0452429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.6wins-0.15per pick44cpaid-43.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6eac…ed37backed Iron Wing48c1,780$846 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$933.657449%281 W · 293 L+33.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x08b8…e7dabacked Iron Wing46c1,696$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$915.9331055.2%171 W · 139 L+12.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x024a…35a3backed Team Yandex52c1,680$874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$873.64065%26 W · 14 L+3.8wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb18c…694fbacked Team Yandex37c1,680$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.584057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c7…42e7backed Iron Wing66c1,633$1,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.6510256.9%58 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Team Yandex51c1,595$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.961,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Iron Wing47c1,532$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.9611649.1%57 W · 59 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7ba7…9c8abacked Team Yandex7c1,510$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.78020%16 W · 64 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-28.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e54…511ebacked Team Yandex39c1,503$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58528145.6%128 W · 153 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94cb…64e3backed Iron Wing47c1,500$705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79518830.9%58 W · 130 L-7.0wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd619…c461backed Team Yandex52c1,498$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.0317040.6%69 W · 101 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3de…6fe8backed Iron Wing75c1,483$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$370.7410075%75 W · 25 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick72cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team Yandex54c1,430$776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$775.6958744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Yandex53c1,411$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754.521,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Iron Wing61c1,399$853 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.5122853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x19ae…395cbacked Team Yandex41c1,388$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$573.3731936.7%117 W · 202 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Iron Wing49c1,359$666 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$693.1861745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3f…5e0dbacked Iron Wing70c1,344$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.287379.5%58 W · 15 L+9.9wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+19.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Team Yandex53c1,300$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68969835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff56…f485backed Iron Wing45c1,295$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.252937.9%11 W · 18 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-19.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x249e…4fa6backed Iron Wing50c1,254$627 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62717249.4%85 W · 87 L-5.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe05…8b13backed Team Yandex46c1,251$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5805939%23 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Yandex37c1,212$447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446.7850749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c58…7ee8backed Team Yandex14c1,205$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.34147.1%1 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick17cpaid-67.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f88…c6e8backed Team Yandex25c1,191$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.2712335.8%44 W · 79 L-13.7wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-32.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Yandex53c1,173$627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.6941944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53b2…9f96backed Iron Wing79c1,173$929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.198658.1%50 W · 36 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Iron Wing47c1,170$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.2129240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc69b…2076backed Iron Wing68c1,154$781 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.3118844.7%84 W · 104 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce20…0b7bbacked Team Yandex42c1,140$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.8912060.8%73 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40db…ca8cbacked Iron Wing75c1,123$842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.6454058.9%318 W · 222 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x47e8…efdcbacked Iron Wing66c1,074$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.1619456.2%109 W · 85 L+13.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Yandex31c1,036$316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.3177256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49ea…36cdbacked Team Yandex50c1,005$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502.53250%16 W · 16 L-3.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x08cf…22b9backed Team Yandex37c1,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37053758.8%316 W · 221 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aff…b136backed Team Yandex29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29032445.1%146 W · 178 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Yandex53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3752…2f08backed Team Yandex53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53034442.2%145 W · 199 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f79…434abacked Team Yandex38c999.99$377 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37749644.6%221 W · 275 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd6cf…d3f0backed Iron Wing45c999.97$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.9817449.4%86 W · 88 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Yandex21c923.22$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.4553844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Iron Wing50c916.72$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$458.3641242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Iron Wing59c900$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36935758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfc70…8be9backed Team Yandex27c900$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24125354.5%138 W · 115 L+13.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb283…4501backed Team Yandex33c869.61$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.842828.6%8 W · 20 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Iron Wing51c853.37$436 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$417.4826550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.