TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $80-$85 in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$187,759
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$161,880

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $187,759 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xac08…45debacked Yes8c5,543$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.2330%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes0c3,767$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.32330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7e3…0ce5backed Yes11c3,186$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$350.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x154e…f1c6backed Yes10c2,837$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ecc…b720backed Yes7c2,810$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes6c2,475$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.91287.1%2 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-88.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8ace…9978backed Yes10c2,375$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb0…25c4backed Yes3c2,296$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cbd…c9f2backed Yes11c2,223$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes5c2,221$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.74932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a99…1a79backed Yes3c2,201$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.8310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a0…05f8backed Yes3c2,164$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07cb…867fbacked Yes19c2,130$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fa1…53f6backed Yes12c2,044$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25040%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc25f…124abacked Yes9c1,957$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5824…3217backed Yes9c1,953$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x661f…e34abacked Yes3c1,795$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.6710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8871…99b8backed Yes10c1,784$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes7c1,781$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.622218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6a7…7dc5backed Yes3c1,769$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3572…936bbacked Yes7c1,661$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9821…cdd3backed Yes7c1,527$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed85…f876backed Yes9c1,500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4264…6d61backed Yes7c1,448$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb3…47dbbacked Yes7c1,428$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e3c…fffcbacked Yes7c1,347$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd57a…9c38backed Yes3c1,340$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa245…d248backed Yes3c1,287$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes5c1,265$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.841884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a7…46d0backed Yes11c1,258$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.76714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-67.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7230…552ebacked Yes8c1,232$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9940%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes4c1,230$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.612934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4b5f…33ecbacked Yes9c1,229$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49a1…eccabacked Yes2c1,192$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5480%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,160$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.531,0249.1%93 W · 931 L-25.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x45d9…3388backed Yes7c1,155$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.5420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9c9…52a7backed Yes3c1,074$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc982…009bbacked Yes7c1,068$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1af…701ebacked Yes5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5080%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba31…5a9fbacked Yes2c941.94$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69ae…9224backed Yes7c940$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f77…7c8dbacked Yes10c908$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaef1…fb71backed Yes7c884$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x182c…c558backed Yes7c863$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a3…203abacked Yes12c849.14$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.663228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-56.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ade…0402backed Yes7c840$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86d0…4990backed Yes7c831$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No76c755.44$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.5121228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0800…8d11backed Yes7c747$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedd6…c6babacked Yes13c743.7$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d65…c5e4backed Yes7c742$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5394…3b7fbacked Yes7c706$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91c0…3b82backed Yes7c645$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3219…9219backed Yes3c616$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…4f4fbacked Yes8c602.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2da5…9c11backed Yes10c586.49$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes6c586$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.783718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5fc…120dbacked Yes3c577$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes4c575.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.761212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x56aa…b9c9backed Yes7c568$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes2c568$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.43116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b8d…105abacked Yes9c558.24$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6997…da91backed Yes3c556$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcda6…3f07backed Yes7c522.19$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363941%16 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes8c512.3$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.875429.6%16 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd568…c2ecbacked Yes16c500$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf283…74acbacked Yes7c457$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee9b…0a84backed Yes25c428$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.07771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes6c425.22$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.454214.3%6 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefd4…f622backed Yes10c399$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5a…500bbacked Yes10c382$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes6c363.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.91540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c1d…aa8abacked Yes3c359.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5260%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36b2…d0d9backed Yes11c357.83$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f9f…48e1backed Yes5c350$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-73.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c349.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94e4…b647backed Yes10c340.54$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick18cpaid+80.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd677…a495backed Yes15c339.51$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504831.3%15 W · 33 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-43.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c56…0786backed Yes17c296.22$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes4c291.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.142221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes9c290.89$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.87921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x45a7…56d9backed Yes10c290$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe95c…c1e1backed Yes13c287.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes9c282$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.5126413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes6c272.56$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7293.4%1 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2fa…4a62backed Yes6c258.76$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.261442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe46…cb39backed Yes6c250$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152055%11 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick48cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa2f…30c7backed Yes10c240.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2550%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdbb…6984backed Yes13c239.16$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+48.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7f8d…188abacked Yes10c238$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ff0…6f82backed Yes10c231$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45fb…f9c0backed Yes23c221.06$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0269…a94ebacked Yes12c210.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-47.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc656…b737backed Yes9c199.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-64.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33ed…bb68backed Yes8c188.56$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c7…5b3bbacked Yes11c176.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.721618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf703…0439backed Yes12c170.27$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x571b…3418backed Yes18c169.82$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed Yes7c163.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3329447.3%139 W · 155 L+34.3wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x52bd…82dbbacked Yes9c161$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.