Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$75 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5cdd841a707174a95890e869c345b98631bc5a7e3077eb68bf64a755167c811
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $80,068
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,367
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $80,068 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x49a1…eccabacked Yes | 1c | 11,968$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.49 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 33c | 10,062$3,292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,292.3 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…f876backed Yes | 6c | 6,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 4c | 5,071$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.01 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 4c | 2,076$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.25 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…701ebacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 5c | 2,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 9c | 1,937$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.79 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e8…35efbacked Yes | 2c | 1,625$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 1,402$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…46d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,258$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,119$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a6…588bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,056$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 4c | 1,042$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.63 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2800…1e5dbacked Yes | 10c | 1,005$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b8d…105abacked Yes | 5c | 1,002$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 6c | 890.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1d…aa8abacked Yes | 2c | 717.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 7c | 661.46$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +6.9wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ee…9a18backed Yes | 3c | 620.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 2c | 586$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 556.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 264 | 13.3%35 W · 229 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 4c | 550.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 93 | 2.2%2 W · 91 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…ca9abacked Yes | 9c | 536.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 511.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 121 | 2.5%3 W · 118 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc13…9c34backed Yes | 4c | 481.07$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2baa…647abacked Yes | 5c | 437.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 3c | 419.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e7…b65ebacked Yes | 4c | 405.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 398.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1b…fba1backed Yes | 4c | 373.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 370.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 91 | 2.2%2 W · 89 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e71…c117backed Yes | 13c | 303.91$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed Yes | 5c | 300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c56…0786backed Yes | 10c | 280$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 7c | 271.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 138 | 58%80 W · 58 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x846c…0366backed Yes | 4c | 268.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 79c | 268$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.56 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf901…d917backed Yes | 18c | 219.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da5…9c11backed Yes | 9c | 219.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…9b9abacked Yes | 8c | 191.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes | 6c | 173.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 8c | 162.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…b2c2backed Yes | 7c | 136.57$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8030…7b74backed No | 39c | 95.17$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.67 | 57 | 47.4%27 W · 30 L | +13.8wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 67cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$75 in March?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $65-$70 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $75-$80 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $80-$85 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $85-$90 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$60 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.