TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $75-$80 in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$278,253
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$280,071

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $278,253 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd519…932cbacked Yes0c9,921$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.762330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49a1…eccabacked Yes10c6,572$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.6180%0 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes8c4,459$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.534727.7%13 W · 34 L-6.9wins-0.15per pick42cpaid-55.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xed85…f876backed Yes7c4,197$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.6940%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee68…ef88backed Yes4c3,977$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.1310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x153e…5bd5backed Yes3c3,123$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes3c3,073$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.892218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd188…0116backed Yes4c2,909$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3da…320dbacked Yes3c2,343$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf8…ac0abacked Yes3c2,312$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d9…3388backed Yes3c2,301$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b9…1da0backed Yes4c2,153$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe676…bf4ebacked Yes4c2,055$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38fa…6940backed Yes4c1,951$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf34d…e864backed Yes4c1,946$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes5c1,943$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.85287.1%2 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-88.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0f34…7684backed Yes4c1,925$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.614420.5%9 W · 35 L-3.0wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-55.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a66…d29abacked Yes4c1,869$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b74…fda9backed Yes4c1,792$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8285…d016backed Yes1c1,698$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85bb…23e4backed Yes4c1,652$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33a…9a87backed Yes4c1,573$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86d0…4990backed Yes4c1,566$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x202f…d0f9backed Yes5c1,530$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef3…3a38backed Yes4c1,417$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96ee…7b0bbacked Yes3c1,394$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762f…b2c0backed Yes4c1,372$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9327…294cbacked Yes4c1,321$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes7c1,276$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4526413.3%35 W · 229 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3a7…46d0backed Yes9c1,258$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.95714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-67.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf619…fcbbbacked Yes4c1,202$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc28b…e8fbbacked Yes4c1,199$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes3c1,190$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.132221.4%3 W · 219 L-0.4wins0.00per pick2cpaid+28.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62cf…9f15backed Yes4c1,171$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x536c…8f1fbacked Yes3c1,168$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes4c1,168$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.591884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37e…8894backed Yes3c1,165$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.6210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8126…7a9cbacked Yes3c1,095$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf283…74acbacked Yes4c1,076$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1af…701ebacked Yes5c1,035$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0580%0 W · 8 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd64d…8bc9backed Yes5c987$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x55f1…12f4backed Yes3c957$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee54…8189backed Yes5c941.22$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdde3…79e3backed Yes4c934$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfe0…b730backed Yes4c934$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1990…a1ccbacked Yes3c934$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes5c921.66$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.14214.3%6 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-53%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f9f…48e1backed Yes3c903.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.75812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-73.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf7…e62cbacked Yes4c898$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ccb…5299backed Yes3c896$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d10…0ffcbacked Yes3c894$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x570a…cf84backed Yes4c894$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa95b…2047backed Yes3c871$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a23…3e66backed Yes5c834$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.3610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x873b…6552backed Yes4c805$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x961d…7db3backed Yes3c805$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a3…203abacked Yes9c799.63$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.943228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-56.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5372…b778backed Yes4c762$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaac9…70d2backed Yes4c735$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d0e…8d41backed Yes4c728$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c716.03$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.851,0249.1%93 W · 931 L-25.7wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd33b…d5b8backed Yes4c713$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcd4…0b65backed Yes4c699$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes3c687.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.742324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed Yes3c684.8$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.042934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafa5…7e43backed Yes3c682$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes5c674.82$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.8334534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3513…b52fbacked Yes3c665.96$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.65520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-74.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a46…9e10backed Yes4c655$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f77…7c8dbacked Yes5c653$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf703…0439backed Yes10c651.27$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6240%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc982…009bbacked Yes4c631$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac08…45debacked Yes8c614.51$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc25f…124abacked Yes4c613$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7822…fe85backed Yes4c609$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes5c604.88$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.31932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d5a…beeebacked Yes4c604$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2a4…796fbacked Yes3c603.69$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b8d…105abacked Yes8c593.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes4c591$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.893718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x516f…a0e9backed Yes3c586$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes5c583.09$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.81212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9add…f7e1backed Yes4c562$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa2c8…30afbacked Yes4c557$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes7c546.64$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.713858%80 W · 58 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4e03…5054backed Yes4c537$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa910…0777backed Yes11c531.4$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x571b…3418backed Yes8c528.44$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…15dfbacked Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353630.6%11 W · 25 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes4c477.22$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.68293.4%1 W · 28 L-0.1wins0.00per pick4cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6274…6907backed Yes3c470$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed64…3260backed Yes7c470$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1308…f465backed Yes3c438$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc06…c543backed Yes4c434$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa7f…f670backed Yes4c429$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x125a…e28dbacked Yes4c426$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06f4…8addbacked Yes4c408$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2da5…9c11backed Yes12c405.95$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcda6…3f07backed Yes4c400$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163941%16 W · 23 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2b3…0b0fbacked Yes3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.