Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd6a2e52e19db9b7f74cc2f61748f357201ff48bd5d01f375789640bba78379c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $117,658
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $78,691
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $117,658 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c1d…aa8abacked Yes | 0c | 4,865$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 1c | 3,412$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1077…3afcbacked Yes | 2c | 2,634$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc13…9c34backed Yes | 2c | 2,547$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,310$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 96 | 16.7%16 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 2,297$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b16…3b62backed Yes | 2c | 2,095$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdee0…4d6dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,979$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a9b…e631backed Yes | 2c | 1,797$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 2c | 1,786$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,715$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 75 | 2.7%2 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1973…b7f1backed Yes | 2c | 1,676$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04f4…39c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,656$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39cb…7fcbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,640$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d05…9c88backed Yes | 1c | 1,562$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x184c…1c26backed Yes | 3c | 1,559$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d68…9a56backed Yes | 2c | 1,433$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e71…c117backed Yes | 3c | 1,415$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.69 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +72.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 2c | 1,383$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 188 | 4.3%8 W · 180 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…f586backed Yes | 2c | 1,359$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 13cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a4…796fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,301$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b86…a4ecbacked Yes | 2c | 1,282$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a7…46d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,258$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 2c | 1,174$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 29 | 3.4%1 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…89f1backed Yes | 1c | 1,088$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -75%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x965a…26cbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,054$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1af…701ebacked Yes | 1c | 999.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f69…51debacked Yes | 2c | 972$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x003a…0f69backed Yes | 2c | 962$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d1…9a21backed Yes | 2c | 868$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeacb…82c7backed Yes | 2c | 853$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44cb…8289backed Yes | 2c | 793$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61bd…6563backed Yes | 2c | 791$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb3f…ef9abacked Yes | 2c | 783$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed2…0753backed Yes | 2c | 760$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfbf…3957backed Yes | 2c | 728$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b41…954bbacked Yes | 2c | 721$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d4…a71bbacked Yes | 2c | 684$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0182…c69cbacked Yes | 2c | 651$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03fb…2c6cbacked Yes | 2c | 630$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a8…00c7backed Yes | 2c | 503.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.9wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffb…751cbacked Yes | 16c | 219.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $65-$70 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$75 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $75-$80 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $80-$85 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $85-$90 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?Yes won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$60 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.