TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$266,696
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$287,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,696 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 423 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x71ab…f015backed No19c5,580$1,043 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,043.1713949.6%69 W · 70 L+20.4wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+41.3%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes74c5,343$3,928 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,415.622540%10 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d80…2070backed Yes62c4,142$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,591.9137.7%1 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.29per pick37cpaid-87.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked No40c3,847$1,523 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,522.7130238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcddc…a8cfbacked Yes70c3,770$2,636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,134.141100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes65c3,500$2,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2265810.3%6 W · 52 L-4.8wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-56.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9d73…216bbacked Yes61c3,483$2,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.1214849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.4wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-11.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2fa…4a62backed No36c3,329$1,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2151442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdff0…2671backed No36c3,250$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,164.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7230…552ebacked No5c3,125$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15040%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bdd…9fe1backed No4c3,073$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.6930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No35c2,962$1,037 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,036.554163.4%26 W · 15 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe7aa…afe8backed No4c2,880$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.5520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f5…e4f1backed No4c2,765$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No27c2,462$665 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$665.35287.1%2 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-88.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe361…8a94backed Yes74c2,334$1,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.45520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-73.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No31c2,183$673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$673.353565.7%23 W · 12 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdce3…8bd0backed No1c2,114$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.62728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick19cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c64…4e93backed Yes63c1,935$1,210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.541050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24aa…7e0abacked Yes70c1,680$1,174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeeb2…7aa7backed No4c1,601$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.4420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb55f…db35backed No4c1,567$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.9520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30dd…8be9backed No5c1,546$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa651…1fd0backed Yes71c1,545$1,090 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.324325.6%11 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a20…e1c2backed No5c1,510$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2140…605fbacked Yes76c1,509$1,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.291625%4 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-62.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe82f…3c5cbacked No6c1,509$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.5620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa53b…4021backed No34c1,490$502 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.7629747.5%141 W · 156 L+34.9wins+0.12per pick36cpaid+30.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x3f74…da44backed No4c1,462$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdfd0…7858backed No5c1,406$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe5f6…739abacked Yes22c1,387$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.9520%1 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick17cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes33c1,318$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$884.872218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf40…38b8backed No46c1,290$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$592.464669.6%32 W · 14 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dfd…8775backed Yes50c1,287$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.13425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-50.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes70c1,221$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.293119.4%6 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+35.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No14c1,201$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.548617.4%15 W · 71 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-37.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes61c1,200$729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.992536%9 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+42.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8bb…d360backed No5c1,179$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.6920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c7…5b3bbacked No31c1,153$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$356.021618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63a9…5958backed No6c1,143$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcff5…4778backed No4c1,130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No7c1,118$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.261,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2a4…2f08backed No15c1,103$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2524…813abacked No6c1,102$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9fdd…ae68backed No4c1,093$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No9c1,073$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.771306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes70c1,069$749 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.3730839.6%122 W · 186 L-17.4wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-28.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xee54…8189backed No24c1,061$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e26…bd63backed No4c1,051$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes70c1,020$711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.4623846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd519…932cbacked Yes75c1,000$750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2502330.4%7 W · 16 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick23cpaid-37.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No26c1,000$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2554045%18 W · 22 L+5.5wins+0.14per pick31cpaid+26.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xed85…f876backed No30c999.99$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a6d…1d0abacked No24c976.47$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.3521228.8%61 W · 151 L0.0wins0.00per pick29cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc320…7637backed No2c974.58$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.54837.5%18 W · 30 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked No2c972.37$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5821011.9%25 W · 185 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-59.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed No41c913.3$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.4534534.5%119 W · 226 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54a9…d60cbacked Yes78c900$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1982100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd555…e28abacked Yes63c884.42$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$325.15862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick57cpaid-12.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x250c…2774backed No2c800$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.52934.1%12 W · 281 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18ae…1f84backed No4c742$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes39c706.29$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.492075%15 W · 5 L+4.6wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+27.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd568…c2ecbacked Yes43c699.92$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a3…203abacked Yes61c698$424 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.443228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-56.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed No26c693.65$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.11540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0111…e476backed No4c692$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf350…f3ffbacked No24c661.99$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.745844.8%26 W · 32 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb965…c957backed Yes61c657.36$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.361838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed No24c656.07$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.342740.7%11 W · 16 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-37.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb8…d688backed No4c652$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f04…d82ebacked No21c646.34$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.45429.6%16 W · 38 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+73%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x880e…54edbacked No31c640.8$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+54%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x59c7…c51bbacked No5c640$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.2830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecea…7ac0backed No5c634$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.9720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e61…f1bebacked Yes76c617.78$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.64333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick76cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b14…31c6backed No5c612$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72c8…6dbfbacked No5c603$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes73c601$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.083718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba21…881cbacked Yes68c600$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1027…8f1ebacked No22c600$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+75.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a89…b220backed Yes70c570.77$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+90.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe27…52b7backed Yes71c570.45$405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.43742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-32%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe395…0671backed Yes52c569.48$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.111729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-38.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c63…eb97backed Yes68c568.62$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.18333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-51.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc559…ce9cbacked No6c566$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f2…4d60backed No4c563$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No31c541.41$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.917921.5%17 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-41.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No13c531.44$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.474520%9 W · 36 L+4.2wins+0.09per pick11cpaid+72.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No37c527.87$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.7518637.6%70 W · 116 L-9.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-33.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde4a…20cbbacked Yes64c516.12$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-48.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No33c514.2$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.311154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x510b…fd51backed Yes63c511.01$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.471070%7 W · 3 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick41cpaid+79.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8bb0…c0a0backed No4c508$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked No79c500$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39515556.1%87 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbe37…04d2backed No6c486$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1330%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e1f…8fdebacked No20c480$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.787548%36 W · 39 L+3.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-1.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c6b…3cb2backed No4c477$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2970…bd2dbacked Yes65c460.02$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.1520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-69.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde8d…e4cebacked No6c438$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.1630%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9992…fecbbacked No4c434.98$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.