Commodities · resolved market
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4c90fa6d68ec63c09433517e8be32fe656353bcf9150267bb41722846f96364f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $266,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $287,475
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $266,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 423 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x71ab…f015backed No | 19c | 5,580$1,043 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,043.17 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +20.4wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +41.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 74c | 5,343$3,928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.62 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d80…2070backed Yes | 62c | 4,142$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,591.9 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.29per pick | 37cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked No | 40c | 3,847$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.71 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcddc…a8cfbacked Yes | 70c | 3,770$2,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes | 65c | 3,500$2,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,226 | 58 | 10.3%6 W · 52 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…216bbacked Yes | 61c | 3,483$2,119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.12 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fa…4a62backed No | 36c | 3,329$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,215 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdff0…2671backed No | 36c | 3,250$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,164.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7230…552ebacked No | 5c | 3,125$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bdd…9fe1backed No | 4c | 3,073$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 35c | 2,962$1,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,036.55 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7aa…afe8backed No | 4c | 2,880$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f5…e4f1backed No | 4c | 2,765$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 27c | 2,462$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.35 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe361…8a94backed Yes | 74c | 2,334$1,739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 31c | 2,183$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$673.35 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…8bd0backed No | 1c | 2,114$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c64…4e93backed Yes | 63c | 1,935$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.54 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24aa…7e0abacked Yes | 70c | 1,680$1,174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.85 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeeb2…7aa7backed No | 4c | 1,601$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55f…db35backed No | 4c | 1,567$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30dd…8be9backed No | 5c | 1,546$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa651…1fd0backed Yes | 71c | 1,545$1,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.32 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a20…e1c2backed No | 5c | 1,510$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2140…605fbacked Yes | 76c | 1,509$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.29 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe82f…3c5cbacked No | 6c | 1,509$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa53b…4021backed No | 34c | 1,490$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.76 | 297 | 47.5%141 W · 156 L | +34.9wins | +0.12per pick | 36cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f74…da44backed No | 4c | 1,462$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfd0…7858backed No | 5c | 1,406$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…739abacked Yes | 22c | 1,387$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,086.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…f3a9backed Yes | 33c | 1,318$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$884.87 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -49%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 46c | 1,290$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.46 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…8775backed Yes | 50c | 1,287$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 70c | 1,221$857 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.29 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 14c | 1,201$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.54 | 86 | 17.4%15 W · 71 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed Yes | 61c | 1,200$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.99 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8bb…d360backed No | 5c | 1,179$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…5b3bbacked No | 31c | 1,153$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.02 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a9…5958backed No | 6c | 1,143$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff5…4778backed No | 4c | 1,130$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 7c | 1,118$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.26 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a4…2f08backed No | 15c | 1,103$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2524…813abacked No | 6c | 1,102$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fdd…ae68backed No | 4c | 1,093$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 9c | 1,073$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 70c | 1,069$749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.37 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…8189backed No | 24c | 1,061$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e26…bd63backed No | 4c | 1,051$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 70c | 1,020$711 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.46 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd519…932cbacked Yes | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 26c | 1,000$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xed85…f876backed No | 30c | 999.99$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 24c | 976.47$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.35 | 212 | 28.8%61 W · 151 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc320…7637backed No | 2c | 974.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 2c | 972.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 210 | 11.9%25 W · 185 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 41c | 913.3$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$371.45 | 345 | 34.5%119 W · 226 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a9…d60cbacked Yes | 78c | 900$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked Yes | 63c | 884.42$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.15 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 2c | 800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 293 | 4.1%12 W · 281 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…1f84backed No | 4c | 742$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…4adbbacked Yes | 39c | 706.29$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.49 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd568…c2ecbacked Yes | 43c | 699.92$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a3…203abacked Yes | 61c | 698$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.44 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9f2…ddd0backed No | 26c | 693.65$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0111…e476backed No | 4c | 692$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 24c | 661.99$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.74 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb965…c957backed Yes | 61c | 657.36$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.36 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed No | 24c | 656.07$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.34 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb8…d688backed No | 4c | 652$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f04…d82ebacked No | 21c | 646.34$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.4 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +73%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880e…54edbacked No | 31c | 640.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.4wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +54%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x59c7…c51bbacked No | 5c | 640$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecea…7ac0backed No | 5c | 634$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e61…f1bebacked Yes | 76c | 617.78$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 76cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b14…31c6backed No | 5c | 612$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72c8…6dbfbacked No | 5c | 603$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc67f…dac8backed Yes | 73c | 601$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.08 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba21…881cbacked Yes | 68c | 600$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1027…8f1ebacked No | 22c | 600$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.37per pick | 38cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a89…b220backed Yes | 70c | 570.77$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +90.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe27…52b7backed Yes | 71c | 570.45$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.43 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe395…0671backed Yes | 52c | 569.48$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.11 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c63…eb97backed Yes | 68c | 568.62$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ce9cbacked No | 6c | 566$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f2…4d60backed No | 4c | 563$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 31c | 541.41$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.91 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 13c | 531.44$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.47 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | +4.2wins | +0.09per pick | 11cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 527.87$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.75 | 186 | 37.6%70 W · 116 L | -9.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde4a…20cbbacked Yes | 64c | 516.12$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 33c | 514.2$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.31 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510b…fd51backed Yes | 63c | 511.01$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.47 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.29per pick | 41cpaid | +79.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c0a0backed No | 4c | 508$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked No | 79c | 500$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe37…04d2backed No | 6c | 486$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 20c | 480$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.78 | 75 | 48%36 W · 39 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6b…3cb2backed No | 4c | 477$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…bd2dbacked Yes | 65c | 460.02$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde8d…e4cebacked No | 6c | 438$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9992…fecbbacked No | 4c | 434.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $90+ in March?this page
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $60-$65 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $65-$70 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $70-$75 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $75-$80 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $80-$85 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $85-$90 in March?No won
- Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at <$60 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.