TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $85-$90 in March?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$228,243
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$207,031

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,243 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 160 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x055b…a9a4backed Yes4c2,701$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd4c…83efbacked Yes4c2,685$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c93…7560backed Yes12c2,495$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2b13…03b8backed Yes10c2,013$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7155…4dd0backed Yes10c1,911$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa367…6c02backed Yes10c1,867$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes10c1,819$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.33287.1%2 W · 26 L-3.2wins-0.12per pick19cpaid-88.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8d3a…28c2backed Yes2c1,815$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93b8…51f2backed Yes2c1,813$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8abf…d973backed Yes5c1,789$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.6610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0a6…3257backed Yes3c1,768$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d98…642abacked Yes5c1,738$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x593d…7d5dbacked Yes7c1,725$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x846f…bcf5backed Yes10c1,724$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x88dd…13f0backed Yes3c1,723$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea96…9952backed Yes10c1,714$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56e0…1a3bbacked Yes23c1,669$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3881118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.11per pick29cpaid-55.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe054…c925backed Yes11c1,613$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8c…32fabacked Yes11c1,594$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3930…f627backed Yes10c1,551$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea08…2ad0backed Yes4c1,509$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffa0…fc96backed Yes10c1,459$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x502e…21f9backed Yes11c1,428$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1701…6f0bbacked Yes3c1,427$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee50…8d79backed Yes3c1,395$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0fd…e635backed Yes4c1,362$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70dd…7446backed Yes4c1,358$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a3…203abacked Yes14c1,353$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.253228.1%9 W · 23 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-56.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9038…83eabacked Yes10c1,272$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3a7…46d0backed Yes18c1,258$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.5714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-67.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…8730backed Yes3c1,200$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.0930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbc8…b8f0backed Yes10c1,175$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf75…949abacked Yes4c1,167$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac34…7833backed Yes3c1,162$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe331…1248backed Yes3c1,125$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1473…9cebbacked Yes4c1,122$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0fd…c0fbbacked Yes3c1,119$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e4e…cf40backed Yes11c1,102$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x505f…db0dbacked Yes3c1,072$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x567d…a00bbacked Yes3c1,072$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f99…e0d5backed Yes14c1,071$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb48c…db08backed Yes4c1,040$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x705d…f3a9backed Yes10c1,036$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.22218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-49%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1670…6940backed Yes11c1,032$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4b5f…33ecbacked Yes10c1,016$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked Yes11c1,004$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.41323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c4c…5bc5backed Yes4c1,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd8a…12e0backed Yes4c978$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0668…a581backed Yes4c952$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.2230%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7341…3fc2backed Yes3c926$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes10c910.9$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.08932.2%2 W · 91 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-86%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6ea…aef5backed Yes13c904.9$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf7b…2748backed Yes11c904$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.44250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick38cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdbb…6984backed Yes14c900.57$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130650%3 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+48.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1355…a695backed Yes9c883.31$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.171884.3%8 W · 180 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-41.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xae8c…762dbacked Yes3c879$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d3…f5f0backed Yes11c874$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7679…0620backed Yes12c872.53$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd126…38d1backed Yes3c837$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2fa…4a62backed Yes14c826.77$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.491442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac2a…54eabacked Yes3c811$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7130%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe9f2…ddd0backed Yes15c809$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.61540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e3…6d9dbacked Yes3c794$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x426d…effdbacked Yes3c792$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeda…8befbacked Yes11c790.68$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x23f2…ec38backed Yes11c780$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2630…725cbacked Yes4c741$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.6410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e2a…54a4backed Yes3c735$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7544…42d1backed Yes4c704$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6312…f94ebacked Yes10c695.91$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.985050%25 W · 25 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-3.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xedd6…c6babacked Yes14c691.1$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa651…1fd0backed Yes22c683.54$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504325.6%11 W · 32 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick36cpaid-53.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf524…a750backed Yes3c677$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3cb…c857backed Yes3c673$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.8410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc36…3978backed Yes4c663$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8e…a0efbacked Yes5c661.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3085…7568backed Yes6c657.48$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.781212.5%3 W · 118 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a1…861bbacked Yes3c607$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc67f…dac8backed Yes12c601$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.543718.9%7 W · 30 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid+24.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0cc…b382backed Yes3c596$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c7…5b3bbacked Yes13c589.17$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.51618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2da5…9c11backed Yes12c579.33$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.51711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xecd7…c7e1backed Yes9c574.61$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.71825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-51.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes3c567.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.753116.1%5 W · 26 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd475…438fbacked Yes3c558$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9591…3f1fbacked Yes35c554.7$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b8d…105abacked Yes9c500$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd568…c2ecbacked Yes15c500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-23.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d9…ed16backed Yes3c491$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98db…4f4fbacked Yes17c482.33$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.860%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc373…42d0backed Yes3c449$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9244…ee87backed Yes3c447$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9630%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x742e…4056backed Yes10c430.04$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5bb…5e61backed Yes3c421$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2150%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e8…2bb4backed Yes24c417.95$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0e3…89bcbacked Yes3c398$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb965…c957backed Yes16c383.28$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes11c378.21$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.2330718.6%57 W · 250 L-17.8wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-34%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf703…0439backed Yes15c369.23$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3b4…c3f4backed Yes13c363.16$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.12540%2 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick32cpaid-41.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.