Middle East · resolved market
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x269b4de59b444c57f166f690b1ce8c388bf26167c6a68f7613ab5b05e86375a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $378,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $426,903
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $378,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 262 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 2c | 17,417$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.35 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked Yes | 4c | 15,717$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd39…109dbacked Yes | 27c | 13,471$3,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,663.74 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44cf…2211backed Yes | 9c | 10,223$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab9…a08dbacked Yes | 9c | 9,429$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.05 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…e982backed No | 76c | 8,796$6,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc2…597abacked Yes | 0c | 7,980$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 117 | 28.2%33 W · 84 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8633…a08dbacked Yes | 25c | 7,748$1,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.24 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a98…1b92backed Yes | 6c | 5,562$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.88 | 168 | 31%52 W · 116 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 2c | 4,843$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 13c | 4,254$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 26cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b9…6b7cbacked Yes | 22c | 4,244$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.38 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…0b32backed No | 75c | 4,000$3,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.41 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e42…0dfebacked Yes | 1c | 3,791$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 165 | 7.3%12 W · 153 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x199d…6e7bbacked No | 79c | 3,766$2,989 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$776.57 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 66cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…01acbacked Yes | 1c | 3,477$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…f651backed Yes | 11c | 3,469$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.18 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Yes | 17c | 3,016$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.31 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed Yes | 22c | 3,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$659.99 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 5c | 2,950$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.15 | 462 | 5%23 W · 439 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…fc6abacked Yes | 7c | 2,653$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 72c | 2,500$1,802 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.99 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc957…243fbacked Yes | 24c | 2,231$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.12 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 2,101$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.28 | 419 | 5.3%22 W · 397 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x544c…24e4backed Yes | 26c | 2,044$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3269…1e7cbacked No | 67c | 2,000$1,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6950…b32abacked No | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed No | 75c | 2,000$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.99 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 5c | 1,994$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.85 | 359 | 21.4%77 W · 282 L | -23.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…e19fbacked Yes | 20c | 1,882$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.85 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0e…3165backed Yes | 1c | 1,849$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 7cpaid | +210%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 5c | 1,826$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 371 | 7%26 W · 345 L | +10.6wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Yes | 23c | 1,763$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb48b…04ebbacked No | 76c | 1,709$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.78 | 83 | 57.8%48 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…e47fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,531$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe56b…2c03backed Yes | 17c | 1,500$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 17c | 1,445$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.65 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,427$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.29 | 423 | 11.6%49 W · 374 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked Yes | 8c | 1,379$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 78c | 1,300$1,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.98 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3115…61d5backed No | 78c | 1,287$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.31 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25e1…6735backed Yes | 25c | 1,263$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.38 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked No | 75c | 1,250$941 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.99 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe23b…f147backed Yes | 4c | 1,213$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.42 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x273e…bb08backed Yes | 19c | 1,179$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed No | 80c | 1,079$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.89 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d0…b48dbacked Yes | 19c | 1,076$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,046$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.83 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c8…1da2backed No | 74c | 1,045$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.17 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…c6b1backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb386…74cdbacked Yes | 27c | 937.47$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 27cpaid | +193.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c23…af6cbacked Yes | 2c | 913.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61e…0abdbacked No | 74c | 900$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.5 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +5.5wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +79.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 2c | 894.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c78…a1a3backed Yes | 18c | 871.14$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.81 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58cd…e44bbacked Yes | 12c | 842.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…4952backed No | 80c | 833.27$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.97 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed No | 75c | 824.99$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.75 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 68c | 814.6$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.77 | 296 | 53.7%159 W · 137 L | +20.2wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +104.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Yes | 6c | 803.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a42dbacked Yes | 26c | 800$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x128a…a059backed Yes | 20c | 754.66$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed No | 77c | 750$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.96 | 341 | 43.4%148 W · 193 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72f7…4345backed No | 75c | 730.03$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.03 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 724.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 18c | 705.11$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.27 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a40…4093backed Yes | 23c | 689.03$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157 | 98 | 25.5%25 W · 73 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc30c…6509backed No | 73c | 680.56$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.03 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +90%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x238f…3015backed Yes | 4c | 673.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 203 | 6.4%13 W · 190 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Yes | 3c | 648.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +70%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Yes | 9c | 646.7$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked Yes | 23c | 603.2$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4d…e59bbacked Yes | 2c | 593.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17f…9d41backed Yes | 34c | 587.01$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f39…b57ebacked Yes | 14c | 570.69$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95bf…3d2fbacked Yes | 22c | 553.59$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f13…ca9abacked Yes | 21c | 547.12$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9872…ab2fbacked Yes | 4c | 539.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39c4…05b7backed Yes | 8c | 530.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f13…3a2dbacked No | 77c | 519.87$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.67 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked Yes | 10c | 519$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9eb…594dbacked Yes | 23c | 517.39$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 4c | 504$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed No | 74c | 502.73$371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.47 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41a2…5ccfbacked Yes | 20c | 500.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…9949backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 152 | 34.2%52 W · 100 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb01e…0c20backed Yes | 21c | 483.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccd…47f0backed Yes | 22c | 448.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e3d…39dfbacked Yes | 22c | 447.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…38c8backed Yes | 6c | 437$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…cb5ebacked No | 75c | 434.19$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.17 | 140 | 55.7%78 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…3a50backed Yes | 5c | 419.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -15.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 416.1$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 589 | 27.2%160 W · 429 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd359…d361backed Yes | 24c | 413$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 68c | 405.57$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.62 | 113 | 57.5%65 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b81…b08abacked Yes | 17c | 403.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc80b…112bbacked Yes | 27c | 402.14$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…c782backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 24 | 4.2%1 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9f…2a46backed Yes | 25c | 400$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.14 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.