TailMyPicks
Market

Venezuela · resolved market

Will Trump meet with Machado by January 16?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Venezuelaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$370,184
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$320,427

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $370,184 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 137 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Venezuela is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Venezuela
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x54f0…7a91backed No1c83,925$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.2390%0 W · 9 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked No0c11,314$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7dcc…dee9backed No0c10,679$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d05…6320backed No2c9,655$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.13425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-64.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb43…af0bbacked No6c9,311$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac5f…3164backed No1c8,010$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed No2c6,214$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.39333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.15per pick19cpaid-17.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c5,656$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.661644.9%8 W · 156 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-75.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No0c4,616$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.98330%0 W · 33 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7129…c8f5backed No0c4,602$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74c1…ab9bbacked No0c4,585$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.88633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda1…8cd6backed No1c4,505$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.3910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cdf…adc5backed No6c3,180$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205250%1 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick15cpaid+106.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf48…d8c6backed No3c3,148$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.3810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No3c3,107$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.48633.2%2 W · 61 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-79.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff05…fad7backed No1c3,083$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.44120%0 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4455…ccaebacked No1c2,838$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5827…48d6backed No0c2,700$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0e1…aa2bbacked No2c2,294$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4669…a7b8backed No1c2,116$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No4c2,066$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.44130%0 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8308…ca4bbacked No5c2,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-57.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x148e…248dbacked No3c1,984$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.22333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid+33.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c6…1f12backed No1c1,908$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c1,871$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.46595.1%3 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5a3…7244backed No1c1,865$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe413…32d3backed No6c1,709$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9930%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc9da…792dbacked No2c1,641$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x388a…f8f9backed No2c1,606$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b01…8f47backed No1c1,599$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.48633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-36.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3afa…d5b7backed No5c1,523$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e1e…c5e3backed No2c1,502$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3530%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a81…64d0backed No3c1,452$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9161…622ebacked No3c1,382$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed No2c1,350$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.14per pick27cpaid-83.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xae12…4271backed No1c1,346$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed No2c1,343$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.65425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-55.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbae2…05f2backed No4c1,241$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.6760%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf207…17acbacked No9c1,236$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60a2…bf61backed No2c1,229$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No9c1,212$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.726521.5%14 W · 51 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick27cpaid-14.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe061…93f9backed No4c1,139$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.15230%0 W · 23 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…4d2dbacked No4c1,123$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.96306.7%2 W · 28 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-11.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No4c1,116$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.14614.9%3 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x350b…9fe1backed No6c1,113$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7750…324dbacked No1c1,101$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5371…83ccbacked No5c1,100$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96e4…29debacked No3c1,098$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde9a…0793backed No1c1,083$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3516…ea50backed No1c1,042$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No7c1,039$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.953917.9%7 W · 32 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick16cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No4c1,012$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.462330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.0wins-0.17per pick48cpaid-55.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9690…f2d5backed No4c1,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.24812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-80.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x328d…f7a9backed No6c974$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef1…d333backed No3c945.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2f31backed No11c801.65$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb13d…6c82backed No13c797.3$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No8c796.39$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.93737.8%14 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+38%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbcb3…1b48backed No7c775.64$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked No3c750$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.751030%3 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-39.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4bc2…597abacked No5c699$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9790%0 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e92…e95abacked No3c692.11$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59fe…05eabacked No1c682$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ab…614bbacked No3c677.64$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick6cpaid+400%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f3a…ec8cbacked No17c666.98$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-74.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf84…8e10backed No9c654.7$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.68425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c88…3171backed No3c625$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5d7…f791backed No3c614.09$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd654…fc12backed No5c613.81$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed No2c584.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7dc…0af0backed No2c523.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xceb4…fe12backed No20c511.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed No4c501.29$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.94449.1%4 W · 40 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick4cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c0e…4838backed No4c500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.6580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.30per pick50cpaid+35.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No10c499.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5fb…4fb7backed No21c487.06$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc7b…d29abacked No8c438.84$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No3c435$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.95320%0 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xfc89…4106backed No19c419.39$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed No5c406.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+66.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5163…1250backed No2c405.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x852a…3188backed Yes79c402.71$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.852955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+28.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No3c400$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13474.3%2 W · 45 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2ba…e8ccbacked No5c398.64$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb98e…eceebacked No9c388.67$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-67.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbda5…77bdbacked No9c376.49$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed No15c372.69$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.05616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x729a…3067backed No3c349.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa97…4545backed No3c339.38$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc8…a46bbacked No6c333.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59bc…3d81backed No17c304.51$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb34…ddbbbacked No8c287.5$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2320%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5827…1a71backed No20c285.69$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc558…35a7backed No7c280.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbee4…25f7backed Yes78c276.99$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c1e…bfe7backed No6c273.74$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.421931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb581…b496backed No20c254.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502548%12 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x74c4…6576backed No8c250$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc163…5a1dbacked No13c243$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.18540%2 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+73.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd3…5696backed No21c235.82$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5040%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Venezuela and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.