Commodities · resolved market
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x099d2c6f10369061feeb1fe5ad87801b64e082654ffc5d45fa92b70074646611
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 8c | 10,500$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.13per pick | 25cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…6c7bbacked No | 0c | 4,236$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x844b…dfb2backed No | 1c | 3,932$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 1c | 3,749$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 73 | 8.2%6 W · 67 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 4cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdf…bd98backed No | 0c | 3,729$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…4ad4backed Yes | 36c | 3,616$1,298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.73 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 4c | 3,550$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134 | 91 | 1.1%1 W · 90 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 65c | 3,090$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,999.97 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16df…1b0bbacked No | 1c | 1,743$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -60%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 63c | 1,691$1,067 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,067.09 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 64c | 1,427$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$507.78 | 117 | 34.2%40 W · 77 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6992…6c1dbacked Yes | 37c | 1,000$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 63 | 25.4%16 W · 47 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74bf…2a6ebacked No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…e76cbacked No | 2c | 996.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 3c | 809$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.39 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +10.4wins | +0.22per pick | 30cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf610…741cbacked No | 3c | 618.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 480.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.96 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 38c | 366$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.92 | 144 | 29.9%43 W · 101 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xebbf…9789backed No | 4c | 300.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75ac…33d7backed No | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 59 | 16.9%10 W · 49 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 38c | 299.79$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.76 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 37c | 278.49$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.45 | 390 | 34.4%134 W · 256 L | -33.8wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x24a3…ec81backed No | 63c | 250$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 36c | 250$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 10c | 216$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 198 | 7.1%14 W · 184 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 200.1$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.06 | 308 | 39.6%122 W · 186 L | -17.4wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1047…763abacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x830b…0a93backed Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 66c | 199.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.99 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked No | 6c | 183.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked No | 70c | 170$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1547…d066backed No | 66c | 164.27$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.42 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50a7…f6b9backed Yes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 15cpaid | +499.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecb2…a30cbacked No | 19c | 132.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…34f7backed Yes | 38c | 130$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.6 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +67%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 120$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 218 | 15.6%34 W · 184 L | -37.8wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 9c | 117$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 95 | 44.2%42 W · 53 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5255…6e58backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16ee…da09backed Yes | 34c | 88.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bb…bdb8backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 66c | 57.51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04c3…9a7cbacked No | 61c | 52.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7750…324dbacked No | 67c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -76%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 29c | 43.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.87 | 78 | 35.9%28 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…8aabbacked Yes | 75c | 41.14$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.47 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +70.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfff9…131cbacked Yes | 30c | 40.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +66.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 41c | 35.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.04 | 185 | 40.5%75 W · 110 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd40c…baddbacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa72d…3df3backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed No | 69c | 28.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70e9…975bbacked Yes | 40c | 28.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…64bbbacked No | 71c | 28.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdea5…c77bbacked No | 68c | 27.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a83…7e38backed Yes | 40c | 27.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x645a…fd84backed No | 72c | 23.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 40 | 77.5%31 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 61c | 19.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c05…c270backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?this page
- Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Bahrain send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Canada send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Greece send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Japan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Kuwait send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Oman send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Pakistan send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Qatar send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Saudi Arabia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will South Korea send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will the Netherlands send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United Arab Emirates send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.